Trendspotting: Nick Markakis, Shane Victorino

So, yeah, I might own both of these guys in one of my leagues. Still, I think it's worth looking at the both of them, as both have five-category skill but aren't considered among the elite outfielders.

Nick Markakis: The Baltimore right fielder is a talented player and it would be great to see him in a better lineup. Still, even though the sample size has been small, he has a definite trend developing: Markakis is definitely a second-half player. His career OPS jumps 111 points after the All-Star Break, and he has six more home runs in nearly 100 fewer games. He and Brian Roberts have been getting hot at the same time, which has given him a few more RBI opportunities as well. Markakis is fast developing into one of those guys you don't really want to draft, but you definitely want to pick up during fantasy's June swoon.

Shane Victorino: For the Phillies outfielder, this has been a tale of two seasons. April OPS: 583; May OPS: 855; June OPS: 630; July OPS: 1000. He hit no homers in April and June but still has 11 on the season. His career numbers outline a similar pattern - April and June are bad months, with a good May squeezed in between. If his career patterns continue, you can expect a better August, followed by a mediocre September. He's shown a little more power than last year, and had he not missed some time to injury he would be a lock for 20/30. Victorino is only 28 and he should continue to develop - he may never go in the first rounds but he is quickly becoming a guy who is productive across the board. 

Trendspotting: David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano

So I would like to discuss a couple of late first round picks and demonstrate why they are chosen in the first round. For many players, injuries mean a loss of value for the entire season. Even after an average player returns, he often becomes below average. Great players, however, show great performance even in seasons where they may not play 162 games. 

David Ortiz: Ortiz, the behemoth in the center of the Boston lineup, has definitely blossomed into a second-half hitter in his time in Boston. His OPS over the past four years is almost 100 points better after the All-Star Break, and his home run numbers are higher in two of the four even though he averages about 20 fewer post-Break games. The question of the moment, then, is not really whether he will hit, but whether hitting without Manny around will be a problem. Boston's lineup, however, has Drew, Bay, Youkilis and Lowell around Big Papi. None are prolific hitters, but all will get on base regularly, and force opponents to pitch to the big slugger. Expect very good numbers that will ease the pain of missing time for injury. 

Alfonso Soriano: Soriano, when healthy, can carry the Cubs to victory after victory. He's a game-changer and a player many were counting on for 30/30 or even 40/40 numbers this year. Unfortunately, he will not have amazing stats because of the time he missed with injury. Still, his post-Break numbers last year show that's when he hit for the most power. In 2006, his last year in Washington, his average and OPS were up substantially, and he stole 20 bases after the big Game. His BABIP is right on target, his LD% is up, and his contact rate is high. The big names hitting behind him don't hurt, either. Soriano may not reach 40/40 by season's end, but I still think 12/12 or even 15/15 is possible the rest of the way if he gets hot.

Trendspotting: Aarong Harang, Ian Snell

So I'm interning this summer at a brokerage office, and all I keep hearing is "make sure to buy low." Don't get me wrong - no one there enjoys the terrible performance of the stock market. But they understand that in the moderately near future, the market will turn around and when it does, you want to buy then. Where have we seen this in fantasy this year? CC Sabathia is the most obvious "buy-low" name, but we do this since the draft (I bought low on Josh Hamilton in two leagues and Chipper Jones in one, for example). Two guys who you can definitely buy low are Aaron Harang and Ian Snell. Why?

Aaron Harang: Harang has been a workhorse the past two years in Cincinnati, putting up nearly identical seasons with 16 wins, an ERA of 3.7-something, and over 215 strikeouts. Tonight, he just lost his tenth to Los Angeles, giving up 5 earned on 10 hits in 5 innings. After a performance like that, I know you probably aren't thrilled about acquiring him for your fantasy team. But keep in mind that the owner who has him will probably sell him for not much. And his walks are down this year, strikeout rate is nearly the same, and BABIP against him is a little high at .327. In 2007, his best month was August (WHIP 0.82) and in 2006, his best month was September (WHIP 0.98). So in 2008, his best month could well be July. With games against Pittsburgh, Washington, the Mets, San Diego, and Colorado, Harang has a chance to beat up on some bad teams. The Jay Bruce-led offense should score him runs, and I bet a push for him this weekend could net you a very nice bargain.

Ian Snell: Pittsburgh's de-facto ace heading into this season has gone the way many of their talented young pitchers do. Unlike Oliver Perez, however, I don't think it will take a trade to New York to get Snell going. All it will take is some better control. Simply put, Snell has struggled this year because he's walking many more people than he has in years past. His schedule is less than ideal, but most of his games against Chicago are done. Pittsburgh has three series with San Diego in the second half, a couple with Colorado, one with the Giants (during your playoff) and a few with Cincinnati. Part of why I like Snell is because his price has to be very low. You could honestly stash him on your bench and wait for him to come around - he should be available for a bag of balls.

What's with Those Florida Teams? [Scott Kazmir, Troy Percival]

Good hitting only goes so far, for both fantasy teams and baseball teams. There are no championships won without some good pitching, and this Tampa team has plenty of it. I'd like to focus on the two most surprising (to me) members of the staff - Scott Kazmir, who has excelled in his return from injury, and Troy Percival, who has pitched very well in his return from baseball purgatory.

Kazmir is 6-2 with an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00 in eight starts. How has he managed this after coming off the DL in May? I'd love to say it was facing bad teams, but he's faced the Angels twice, the Rangers twice, the Yankees, Oakland, the ChiSox and the BoSox. The key to Kazmir's success appears to be a walk rate of 2.79 per 9 innings, well below his career average of 4.02. Is that just good pitching? There's probably a bit of luck involved - his BABIP is .259, and regression to the mean suggests that will go up as the year progresses. But his surprisingly excellent play has buoyed a lot of fantasy teams, and it's been key to the Rays success so far in 2008.

Percival is another story all together. After a run of success for the Angels that included a World Series title in 2002, he pitched poorly for Detroit in 2005 and did not play in 2006. The Cardinals resurrected him, though, and Tampa gave him the opportunity to close once again this off-season. Percival has responded with 15 saves, a WHIP of 0.60 and a BAA of only .132. He's been getting an unusually high number of fly ball outs, however, and that BAA ought to come up by season's end. He has provided nice late-round value for fantasy owners, though, and should remain a good low-end option for the rest of the year.

As far as the rest of the staff goes, James Shields has been very good. He has struggled against Boston (7 earned in 3.2 innings in May, 4 earned in 1 inning in June) but has been stellar otherwise. His numbers are basically in line with his career stats, though there's a small sample size, but I expect good pitching from Shields the rest of the way. Matt Garza also pitched poorly against Boston at the beginning of June, but has otherwise been solid (5 wins, 1.31 WHIP). His K/9 is actually very low, which means there's room for improvement here. Andy Sonnanstine has also been worthy of spot-starts, with a few big-time performances so far this season. Kazmir pitching like an ace makes this Tampa staff deep, and this young group will be dominating American League hitters for years to come. 

Trendspotting: AJ Pierzynski, Mike Napoli

So, in watching players go down, we're going to try to get you some advice on how to replace them. I'm starting with Victor Martinez, because catcher is always a tough position to fill, and odds are his owners won't have any trade options. Two guys who are probably available in most formats are AJ Pierzynski and Mike Napoli. What does each bring to the table?

AJ Pierzynski: Pierzynski is hitting a solid .301 this year. He is an underrated fantasy catcher, in my opinion, because he provides a little pop and doesn't kill your average. Honestly, if you own Kenji Johjima (.226 batting average in 2008), you might want to look at Pierzynski seriously as well. The main question would be - will he sustain this success? The stats indicate, yes he will. His BABIP is .323, which seems high but is only 15 points ahead of his career average. His slugging and OBS are similarly in line with - though slightly above - his career numbers. He's cut down on his strikeouts (2008 K % = 10%, career K % = 12%). Remember Jorge Posada in 2007? It's not insane to think that a veteran catcher can have a good season late in his career. I like Pierzynski to be productive the rest of the year. He won't carry your team to first, but he won't carry it to the cellar, either. Sometimes, from the catcher position, that's all you need.

Mike Napoli: The Angels catcher has always had pop in his bat since being called up in 2006. This year, though, it seems like he's finally developing his stroke. He already has 10 home runs, matching his season total from last year. The low RBI total is annoying, but if he keeps hitting for power, he'll be driving people in eventually. And as far as the low batting average (a terrifying .205 on the season)... Well, his BABIP is a ridiculous .203 this season. Even if he tried, I don't think Napoli could keep that number that low for the rest of the season. So if you haven't been able to replace JR Towles since he was sent to the minors, Napoli certainly deserves a look. The average will come up, and the power is here to stay. Like Pierzynski, he might not carry your team to the championship alone, but he'll certainly earn a starting spot for the rest of the season.

Trendspotting: Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rios

I owe all of you a post. Friday is my normal "editorial" day, but this week I had to attend a graduation (as a side note, I congratulation any of our high school readers that may have escaped their confines). While I'd like to soon return to some economic analyses, I think these two players present a pertinent subject. In my Yahoo! league, I play with differentiated outfield, with one rightfielder, centerfielder, and leftfielder. Rios and Guerrero both offer right field eligibility, with the former also holding a spot in center.

Vladimir Guerrero: I will be the first to admit that Guerrero is not the first or second round talent he once was. He's playing in his thirteenth season and is now a supposed thirty-two years of age. However, he's always been a consistent hitter for average and RBIs, and this year he's far off pace of his career numbers. Currently batting .251, he's seemingly floundering at the plate. There is cause for hope, though, in the fact that his .274 BABIP is nearly 50 points off his career number. His walk rate is too low also, suggesting he's not seeing the ball well (ordinarily fixable and indicate of "just" a slump). I really think he can finish the season batting .300, so a couple of ridiculous month are on their way once his luck flattens out. His hits have been very close to last years distribution (LD%, GB%, and FB%), so really roughly the same average should come out of these. His power won't exceed 30 HR, but if you drafted for more you were a bit too nostalgic. Looking at his HR/FB, it's regressed about 1.8% of the past six years. This year the drop in over 3%, which is too steep of a decline to be explaned by age. He's popping up to the infield less, so when the hits come they should be of the extra-base variety.

Alex Rios: Rios was supposed to go 30-30 this preseason. In April when the speed was there, everyone assumed the power was coming and that he'd be a steal of the draft. I really want him to return to form, but I just can't reasonably predict it. His average sits at a paltry .265, but his BABIP is .333, well above the league average but exactly in line with his career stats. The problem for Rios is that he can't get the ball in the air, hitting more than 10% more groundballs than last (almost all of these hits came away from FB%, as his LD% is roughly the same). Beyond this, his power numbers are half of what they were last year, and fewer fly balls plus fewer HR per FB spells much less power. Now, the dominance of groundballs is probably a mechanic issue, so once he starts hitting the ball over the infield you can start speculating. He hasn't had a homerun though since May 1st, nor hit extra base hits in consecutive games since April 5th and 6th. Right now, it's just not there.

If you have Rios, try to trade him for someone who has faith in his upside. He's young, so he should figure it out eventually, though maybe not anytime soon. If you don't have him, don't look at him as a buy low. Guerrero on the other hand is a great trade option. The narratives are endless, from his age (which could be forty for all we know) to his injury woes. You could get him for cheap, and he should reward bountifully.

Trendspotting: Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard

If you're one of the many fantasy owners who paid dearly for Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder (maybe instead of Albert Pujols), it's now June and you've got to be ready to despair. However, if you've been able to weather their slumps without falling hopelessly behind, I'm here to provide some good news - you've got nowhere to go but up! Why? Let's look at each player.

Prince Fielder: As you probably have seen in our day in review, something bit Fielder in the past week. He has three homers in his past four games and is OPS-ing well over 1.000 for the past week, and his season batting average is all the way up to .280. The 9 RBI in the month of May are my biggest concern. However, he hits directly behind Ryan Braun, whose 11 HR and 22 RBI on the month didn't exactly leave Fielder with a lot of runners to drive in. Overall, though, the strikeouts are down and Fielder is getting on base. Braun won't hit 11 HR every month, but should be on base regularly in front of Prince. His hot streak ruins any chance of a buy-low, but if you grabbed him before that, you have good things in store the rest of the season.

Ryan Howard: The 2006 National League MVP hasn't been himself so far in 2008. He does have 15 home runs (pacing him for 45, which would be a "down" year), but his batting average continues to hang around the Mendoza Line. He's right in par with his career walk rate, strikeout rate, and BABIP, which doesn't breed optimism. So why am I not worried about the Philadelphia slugger? Career OPS pre-All-Star Break: .881, career OPS post-All-Star Break: 1.078. We quickly forget that this time last year, he was hitting about .220 and had only 9 HR. He finished the year at .270 with 47 HR and 136 RBI. If an owner in your league doesn't understand the way Howard starts slow before peaking late, exploit this and make a move to pick up the big Philly first baseman. He will definitely reward you for the risk by season's end.

What's with those Florida Teams? [Scott Olsen, Kevin Gregg]

Quick! Name two members of the Florida Marlins pitching staff!

...

You couldn't either? Don't worry about it. I had to look up their starting staff - Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, and Burke Badenhop. I figured that a first place team would have some fantasy-relevant pitching to speak of, but this team really does not, which makes this post incredibly easy.

Olsen is a fine option but not much better than a marginal pitcher. His K/BB ratio is just over 1.00, his WHIP is 1.30, and his ERA is well under 4 (3.65 for those who really care). He won't blow you away, but he shouldn't really be blowing up. Those FL wins have to be credited to some pitcher, you know? Nolasco is own-able in deeper leagues, but his WHIP (1.38) and ERA (4.48) are a little high for the formats I play. Andrew Miller, even though he's an excellent prospect, isn't performing at a high level quite yet. As he develops, he should become extremely valuable, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen in 2008.

Kevin Gregg remains the closer and the team's highest-paid player. My preseason prediction that he would be traded by July seems less likely each day; as long as the team continues to win, it makes no sense for them to trade away their closer. His BAA for May dropped well below .200, and while I doubt that will hold, there's a good chance he'll remain a source of cheap saves for an entire season.

So I guess the Florida team is getting it done offensively, because there's just not much on their staff. Later in the week, I'll try to get at the root of Tampa's success, and how you can utilize it for your fantasy team.

What's with those Florida Teams? [Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla]

Oh, those first place Florida Teams! The Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays are both having stellar seasons, and leading their respective divisions. How is it that the teams from down South can dominate their northern rivals?

The first key to Florida's success is Hanley Ramirez, who belonged in conversations with Chase Utley in April but has actually faded in May. Still, project his numbers over a whole season and you've got outstanding five-category production. The good news about Ramirez is that his walk rate is up, but the bad news is that he's striking out 25% of the time and his slugging percentage is way down (even though he's still hitting homers, he's barely hitting any doubles). His May slump could potentially - hopefully - be attributed to manager Fredi Gonzalez moving him into the third spot. However, he was moved back to leadoff last week, and so far hasn't set the world on fire (.690 OPS). Still, Ramirez is one of the game's great hitters, and there's no doubt he'll find his stroke soon.

Second baseman Dan Uggla has picked up in May where Ramirez left off in April. His OPS for the month is a ridiculous 1.389, and he has 12 HR, 26 RBI and 27 R with 3 games remaining. Most power hitters are notoriously streaky (Sammy Sosa, David Ortiz, Jim Thome come to mind), and obviously Uggla is having a spectacular month. It's unlikely that he'll maintain his BABIP of .362, and I imagine his 29.4% strikeout rate will catch up to him sometime. Still, for fantasy owners, enjoy his streak while it lasts! He's done a stellar job carrying the Marlins and will hopefully be able to produce for the rest of the season, but I say the numbers indicate you ought to try and sell high.

As for the rest of the team... First baseman Mike Jacobs is walking a little less than I'd like (5% BB%), but his HR/FB ratio and K% are right in line with the career numbers of prodigious power hitter David Ortiz. Plus, his .274 BABIP should improve as the season goes on. Josh Willingham has cut down on his K%, but has a high BABIP which is probably contributing to his high BA. Jeremy Hermida and Jorge Cantu are mediocre, and should continue to be so all season. And prospect Cameron Maybin awaits his call-up later in the season. He has 7 HR and 12 SB this season in the minors, and though his .242 batting average is troubling, his .350 OBP indicates he's still making things happen. This post is already getting too long, so I'll continue with their pitchers in another segment. In short, look for Ramirez to turn it around, Jacobs to be for real, and Uggla to slow down as the season goes on.

Head-To-Head: Joey Votto vs. James Loney

I noticed a post on an ESPN message board after Joey Votto's 3-HR explosion today, asking whether the Reds 1B or his Dodgers counterpart would be more valuable for the rest of the season. I wanted to do a brief comparison of the two players to double-check my gut instinct. Here's what I considered:

Projections: FanGraphs does an awesome job with both Votto and Loney. The consensus seems to be that Votto will have more power than Loney, and will contribute more SBs, but Loney will have a higher BA. Loney was also expected to score more runs, with RBI being about even. From the 1B spot, I would argue that Votto is slightly more valuable - you expect power from 1B and it's more difficult than average to make up from elsewhere. However, the projected differences between the two wouldn't be great because the RBI numbers were so similar.

Ballpark: I always end up factoring this in with hitters, and it makes a huge difference here. Votto plays in Great American Ballpark, a notorious hitter's paradise, while Loney plays in spacious Dodger Stadium. This difference probably accounted for some of the differences in their HR projections, and it indicates a large advantage for Votto.

Competition: With young players, it's very important to consider the fact that they may or may not play the whole season. Loney has had the first base job pretty much nailed down in LA - they could reshuffle the lineup to move Jeff Kent or Nomar there if he really struggled, but it was clear entering 2008 that he was going to get every opportunity to succeed. Votto, however, was going to have to fight off Scott Hatteberg for playing time. Manager Dusty Baker is known for playing veterans, and the MARCEL and MINER projections on FanGraphs show this by projecting Votto to get only 220 and 331 at-bats, respectively. Now, however, it is clear that Votto will be getting regular at-bats the entire season. Loney's once-huge advantage in playing time has now disappeared.

At this point, the difference is clear - Grab Votto if there's any chance he's available. Loney will be a good option at first base, but Votto will be a better one (and has outfield eligibility in some leagues as well!). Keep in mind that Votto still could struggle, but it's now unlikely that he'll end up back in the minors. Give him some time to reach that enormous potential and you will certainly be rewarded in 2008.

Trendspotting: Travis Hafner, Carlos Pena

Today's edition of Trendspotting focuses on a couple of guys who are struggling massively so far this season. I'd like to look at the situations faced by Cleveland DH Travis Hafner and Tampa Bay 1B Carlos Pena.

Travis Hafner: His situation is becoming one of baseball's great mysteries. He's been struggling now for over a year - despite his hot streaks, he finished last year with only 24 HR. Granted, he did reach triple-digit RBI, but his batting average was only .266, well off his career pace of .300 or so. Cleveland dropped him in the lineup and they hope that will jump-start their big hitter. He hasn't been helped by the struggles of the rest of the offense, but technically he should be a catalyst rather than the one relying on them. He'll still get the at-bats in Cleveland, but soon it's going to be time to question whether he's worth the daily start if he doesn't turn things around. Keep your eyes on Big Pronk and CC, because the pair has the fate of the Indians in their hands. 

Carlos Pena: Most experts gave this advice when you drafted Pena: don't pay for last year's career year! I hope you followed, because he simply doesn't have the track record of Hafner (or anyone else at first base). The good news for him, though, is he just got paid with the three year extension this off-season. He doesn't have to worry about toiling in minor league oblivion like he did when in Detroit and New York. Nonetheless, it's difficult to expect Pena to get the average very far above .250. He'll have every chance to work it out while playing every day, though, and he's definitely worth hanging on to. He'll have a hot streak somewhere this year, even if he never reaches .280 with 46 HR again. He may not be worth a daily start, but he certainly belongs on your roster for this season and beyond.

Trendspotting: Brett Myers, Justin Verlander

These two may seem like an odd pair - Myers is a converted closer while Verlander is one of baseball's young studs. Nonetheless, both have struggled this year. Are they buy-low candidates, or is it time to get out while you still have the chance?

 

Brett Myers: Myers had a crazy season in 2007. He spent time in the rotation and bullpen, and struggled with arm problems from overuse. He returned to the rotation this year, and his past gave every indication he'd be successful there. He had 397 strikeouts combined in 2005 and 2006, along with an ERA of 3.81 (combined) and a two-year WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.25. So how to explain his struggles so far? His velocity has fallen from the mid-90s to the upper-80s. The Phillies are calling it a conditioning problem and saying he can build up arm strength between starts. I'm not convinced, but at the same time, there are many pitchers who succeed with upper-80s stuff. You're not going to get anything for Myers in a trade, but he's still worth stashing on your bench for another few starts to see if he starts ironing out his issues. If you don't have him, he's not worth more than a marginal pitcher in a trade right now, because I don't see him as a stellar buy-low candidate.

Justin Verlander: Verlander is a very peculiar case. His velocity is unchanged from previous seasons, and control hasn't been a major issue this year. He made a slight adjustment to his arm angle, suggesting that perhaps his pitches were too side-to-side, but after getting a win against Texas he struggled against Los Angeles on Sunday. In his early games, he seemed to tire out, pitching well for five or six innings before giving up runs. I checked, though, and his innings in 2006 (including post-season) were actually greater than his innings in 2007. That doesn't indicate any reason for him to be tiring out. Detroit is going to need Verlander for many years; they have plenty of reasons to ensure that he's healthy rather than pitching through an injury. Personally, I don't see any reason for Verlander to struggle the entire year. Jim Leyland was optimistic after the loss to the Angels. I'm trying to buy-low on him and convince the owners in my league that he's going to have a Jake Peavy 2006 (Peavy's ERA was 4.09 at season's end) type year. There's simply no reason to believe that Verlander, or the Tigers in general, will be this bad all season. I'd definitely buy here. 

When Does a Player Become Oft-Injured?

You know the names. J.D. Drew. Rich Harden. Ben Sheets. Ken Griffey Jr. A.J. Burnett. Mark Prior. These are the guys with such phenomenal talent that fantasy players bite on them year after year, only to find themselves consistently let down as the player suffers one injury after another. Here are some names that could be heading down that same road.

Howie Kendrick: It kills me to put Kendrick on this list, because like Brandon Funston, I absolutely love this guy. He's a great pure hitter who provides you a nice boost to your team BA. Unfortunately, for the second straight year, he is having injury problems. Last season it was his hand - it never truly healed, and he struggled at the plate for much of the season. This year, it is a hamstring, which for many players is the worst nagging injury you could have. His minor league track record doesn't indicate regular trips to the disabled list, but if his hamstring bothers him for most of this year, you have to look at him as an injury risk for the next year and beyond.

Erik Bedard: I predicted before the season began that he would have one, probably two, disabled list stints this year, but I take no joy from finding this prediction fulfilled. He's 6'1" but weighs only 190 lbs. That body frame is not built to handle the rigors of power pitching on a daily basis. Bedard didn't pitch at all last September, either, limiting him to 182 innings for the year. I consider lanky power pitchers a yearly injury risk, but the good news with Bedard: his injury is hip inflammation, rather than the usual elbow or shoulder problems. This is less likely to be recurring and perhaps - perhaps! - Bedard can get healthy and stay healthy for the rest of his career.

Scott Kazmir: Kazmir is, like Bedard, a 6 foot, 190 lb. power pitcher. His frame is not built to handle the rigors of throwing in the high 90s once every five days, and we've seen players just like him battle injuries year in and year out. He threw 206 innings last season, which is certainly a demanding workload, and his body is now showing the strain. The really bad news with Kazmir is that his is an elbow injury. There's no indication that it's serious, but I would not be surprised if someone predicted Tommy John surgery in Kazmir's future. This story has been told many times before, and it's one reason I generally avoid Kazmir in my fantasy leagues.

Any of these guys or a number of others could pick up the dreaded "oft-injured" label. I actually thought Josh Beckett was going down that road with his finger problems, but he has proven to be healthy and moved away from it. You generally don't want to be the owner holding the player once he acquires that label, because he becomes much harder to trade. Nonetheless, these players don't become unownable simply because they are going to get injured. Look at Fred Taylor in fantasy football - there are always people willing to take high risk/high reward types. Just know exactly what you're getting into with these types. Only time will tell if Kendrick, Bedard, and Kazmir will join this list.

Trades in a Vacuum

So, it's that time in the year when the trades should start flying. If you didn't know your needs and surpluses at this point (you should have had a pretty good idea right after your draft) then you better start adding up your projections with pencil and paper, and comparing those totals to previous years in that league. And if its your first year in the league, check out RotoAuthority's pieces on "What It Takes To Win".

But my focus today is just a general trade strategy. Let's consider a hypothetical trade... Carl Crawford for Justin Morneau. Remember the offseason, when Crawford was an early second round pick while Morneau likely fell off the board late in the fourth, if then. So, should this be a no brainer?

Well, obviously not. Two points that come to mind are position surpluses/needs and category surpluses/needs. The team with Morneau isn't like to trade for Crawford if it has three quality outfielders (if its a three OF league), nor our they going to grab the perennial speedster if their first round selection was Jose Reyes. This is the conventional take, and if your staring at your screen thinking "duh!" you are well within your rights.

However, I want to advise against this strategy, if you are the Justin Morneau owner. For the previous reasoning, what I consider "Trades Aren't Made in a Vacuum"--a rare fantasy baseball tribute to Supreme Court rulings--fails to consider perceived value and liquidity. Another hypothetical: the team makes the deal, then spins Crawford into one of two underperforming stars, Mark Teixeira or David Ortiz. Someone in the league should have a first basemen (necessarily better than Justin Morneau) who they would move for Crawford. In most leagues, that will be the case, and the Morneau owner will be able to turn the Twin into Teix, Ortiz, or possibly Pujols (as a sidenote, I would consider Derrek Lee an upgrade also).

In summary, the team advocating a "Trades Are Made in a Vacuum" essentially traded Morneau for a second-round first basemen. The team brandishing John Marshall sentiments is left with  the Twin, and hopefully front row seats to a Crawford-Ortiz trade. In an ideal world, the Crawford owner should have found the best trade, but in all honesty, we all make mistakes like theirs. This "thought experiment", if you will, is a bit of a hyperbole, and trades involving 7th for 5th round talent, or anywhere in the spectrum, are rather common when teams are desperate. Just don't write off a good deal because "it doesn't fit your team's needs", because you can address that soon after.

Trendspotting: Josh Hamilton, Edgar Renteria

It's that time of year when there are no longer any sleepers, as everyone in any competitive league has done their homework. Long passed are the days that you could throw guys hidden in Mock Draft Central's preranking into your prepick queue and trust that everyone would forget that such player existed. And everyone's favorite player to employ that strategy this offseason was former-Reds centerfielder Josh Hamilton.

The case for Hamilton was strong: Last year he put up a solid line of .292/.368/.554 over the course of about half a season. His numbers, if extrapolated over the full season, would have been 93 R, 34 HR, 84 RBI, with a handful of SBs to boot. The argument against: He's an oft-injured recovered addict with little seasoning. It isn't surprising that Hamilton began the year being overdrafted, then underdrafted, and has now hit what is considered his "balance". In my opinion, he is still going too late-The guy is being treated as a concession prize for anyone who misses out on the upper tier outfielders, when in truth there are probably more question marks with Gary Sheffield and Brad Hawpe than the new Ranger. Grab him as your third outfielder before two many experts start praising his .615 Spring Training Batting Average and and seven extra-base hits (2 HRs). And for those interested, Hamilton + the reasonably-expected-15 day DL trip, if he performs like last year in a ballpark perfectly suited for him, would yield a five-category line of .292 AVG, 84 R, 30 HR, 75 RBI (not considering he's batting in the middle of his new order), and 5 steals.

On the other side of the spectrum, Edgar Renteria seems to be going too early in my opinion. Early in a postseason, player moves inflate draft position, and this usually wears off. For Orlando Cabrera, it did--but probably shouldn't have--while Edgar is still enjoying his newfound 8th spot in a stacked lineup. But people, is the 8th spot really going to deliver? Beyond this, Renteria is heading into his twelfth full season, and his numbers in the past three seasons have averaged 11 HR and 12 SBs. After missing 36 games last season, his durability should be questioned. Worse yet, his last season with the AL yielded a line of .276/.335/.385. While he's possibly a better bet than Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (I don't think so), he's going at least eighty-nine picks earlier than either, and--an even greater sin--two rounds ahead of Orlando Cabrera. If you aren't willing to settle for an up-and-comer, I'd recommend making sure you get one of the elite shortstops. 

Trendspotting: Johan Santana, Andruw Jones

So I went out looking for trends in some mock drafts this weekend, and I witnessed a fellow drafter take Jake Peavy ahead of Johan Santana. He was admittedly biased (Yankee fan) and immediately chastised, but I began to wonder about the effects of changing leagues for a pitcher. In thinking about Trendspotting, I went with "change of scenery" as my theme and included Andruw Jones as well.

Johan Santana: In 2004, his best season in Minnesota, Santana struck out 265 batters in 228 innings. His strikeout total fell last year to 235 in only 219 innings, still good for third-best in the league (behind Peavy's 240 and Scott Kazmir's 236). This season, I like his strikeout total to rise astronomically, because all the lineups he faces will replace designated hitters with pitchers. How have other pitchers fared when jumping from league to league? Bronson Arroyo, when he came to Cincinnati from Boston in 2006, struck out 184 batters in 240 innings, as compared to only 100 in 205 innings the previous year. Randy Johnson (strikeout pitcher in his prime, very comparable to Johan) struck out 364 batters in 271 innings in 1999, his first full season in the National League. In 1997, his last full year in the AL, Johnson struck out 291 in 213 innings. The innings jump certainly accounts for some of his massive strikeout total, but facing hitters who have never seen you before, as well as facing pitchers for the first time, ought to pad Santana's strikeout numbers significantly. 300 K's is a very real possibility for a guy whose ADP is currently 12.15. I'm not saying he belongs ahead of A-Rod, but he could be very valuable early in a draft when you begin to consider his massive potential. 

Andruw Jones: In Mock Draft Central's most recent expert draft, Jones went in the tenth round. He went 4 rounds after Vernon Wells and 3 after Jason Bay, two other outfielders expected to rebound from bad seasons in 2007. [Interesting aside - all three went to the same team] He doesn't have the speed of his youth, but it's impossible to expect more than 10 SBs from any of the three. He will have the lowest average but should balance it nicely with the most power (in '05 and '06 he hit 51 and 41 HR, with 128 and 129 RBI). Jones even went after Jermaine Dye, which is a sin in my opinion. Dodger Stadium may not be a hitter's paradise but Jones will still hit in a young, talented, speedy lineup (plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, even if it is only with doubles). Jones isn't going to give you 5-category production, but he's on a two-year deal and young enough to get paid big money if he has some success in LA. Look for a big season out of him and absolutely grab him before round 10. I'd take him over Bay or Wells to rebound this year.

Trendspotting: Adam Dunn, Brian Roberts

I've been looking over the results of the latest Sports Blogger Draft (Zach participated but I did not as they were looking to diversify the number of blogs represented), as well as the Mock Draft Central Expert Draft, and Adam Dunn and Brian Roberts stand out as one-dimensional players who might be just a little out of place.

Adam Dunn: Zach already pointed out that he went way too early in the Sports Blogger Draft. Early in Round 3 is far too high for a guy that will destroy a team's batting average. The team had a solid foundation with Johan Santana and Mark Teixiera, and I understand the desire to secure a solid outfielder in a 5 OF league, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him there. Russell Martin would've made the most sense. My guess is the blogger wanted Granderson and panicked slightly after he was taken, but it wasn't a smart pick. Dunn hung around until Round 4 at Mock Draft Central, but I still would prefer Manny Ramirez or Nick Markakis that early. Cheap homeruns can be had late (Wily Mo Pena or JD Drew, Benji Molina in a 2 catcher league), but it's much more difficult to find a guy who can make up for a deficiency in batting average. If Dunn goes this high in your league, just stay away at all costs.

Brian Roberts: I mostly want to talk about the latest trade rumors that involve him going to the Chicago Cubs. If he gets to hit in front of Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez on a day-to-day basis, I think I'd be willing to take him in Dunn's spot in the Blogger Draft, early on in Round 3. He currently goes in an appropriate spot, at the end of Round 3/beginning of Round 4. I like pairing him with Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard, because he is guaranteed to steal you bases and score you runs. Interestingly, though, he was paired with Carl Crawford in both expert drafts. I'm not huge on this draft strategy, but if you make it, you'll be in an ideal trading position at midseason. You should have a huge lead in steals, and don't be afraid to pull the trigger to fill whatever need is still on the board. The more I think about this strategy, the more I like the look of a team with Crawford, Fielder, and Roberts at the core. Look for these three if you're at the back end of your draft.

Trendspotting - Brad Penny, Jason Bay

I'm looking to make this a weekly segment, published on Tuesdays, discussing some of the action in mock drafts or the different commentaries I've been reading. For this week, I want to talk about a couple of players I am constantly reading about: Brad Penny and Jason Bay.

Brad Penny: No, I'm not saying that this is the year he's going to pitch like a top-flight fantasy player for an entire season. Of course he won't. But what I am saying is that everyone hates drafting him because they know they're only getting half a season out of him, and he's plummeting down in drafts because of it. The Yahoo! experts have him ranked as their 40th overall starting pitcher, so it's not unreasonable to target him as a number 4 starter in a 12-team league. Last year, his WHIP over May and June was just over 1.00 (with an ERA around 2.00), and his July wasn't as bad as it usually is. Build up your peripherals early in the season and you'll be in a wonderful trading position at the All-Star break, if nothing else. I'll certainly be taking a look at Penny if he's hanging around late - in fact, I drafted him in my recent expert mock draft for Seamless Baseball.

Jason Bay: It seems like every draft analysis I read cries that "Jason Bay was taken too early" or "someone reached for Jason Bay." If the experts are universally denouncing Bay as going "too high," then they (and their readers) are going to avoid him like the plague. Pretty soon, his ADP will plummet, and come March (when all of you are drafting for real) he'll be a forgotten man and a great bargain. Don't forget that in '05 and '06 he was a five-tool outfielder, breaking 100 runs and RBIs and 30 home runs. The knee is a concern, but I agree with Zach that Bay wants out of Pittsburgh. His best shot at getting traded is to start hot, so the team moves him instead of Xavier Nady. Keep your eyes on Bay throughout draft season and in April and May - the early hype could make him a player to target soon.