San Francisco Giants

It's been a long journey across the majors, and it's a relief that it's about to end in San Francisco. It's a relief that it's ending here, because this analysis ought to be short and sweet. Every other team in the West can talk reasonably of winning the division; this one can talk only of finishing in last by a lot. Life without Barry Bonds is as cold and empty as life with him.

Lineup

• LF Dave Roberts
• 3B Kevin Frandsen
• RF Randy Winn
• C Bengie Molina

• CF Aaron Rowand
  
• 2B Ray Durham
• 1B Dan Ortmeier
• SS Omar Vizquel

Rotation

• Matt Cain
• Barry Zito
• Tim Lincecum
• Noah Lowry
• Kevin Correia

Closer: Brian Wilson

Thoughts...

Yes, this is a pretty bad team, but the good news is: I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance! On a more serious note, there are a few reasons for optimism here.

1. Cain is a very good starting pitcher, who is mostly wins away from being truly outstanding. Maybe in a year or two, he'll be able to supplement his 170ish strikeouts and ERA around 3.50 with a few victories. 

2. Lincecum is going to be great. Someday. It might even be someday soon, but like Cain, he will be plagued by a lack of run support and wins.

3. A catcher is hitting cleanup. It's Bengie Molina, who's no Victor Martinez, but he does have back-to-back 19 HR years and will get RBI chances hitting fourth. 

4. You can get Randy Winn for nothing, literally, and he's produced double digit homeruns and steals for the past six seasons. He's not outstanding, but in deeper leagues he's a hidden gem. Or something like that.

5. Barry Bonds is gone. That's a good thing, right?

That about covers the Giants. Personally, I'm avoiding this team like everyone else. They're going to get run all over by the elite teams of their division. Maybe in a couple years, if Rajai Davis and the youngsters get the chance to grow, this team will win some games again, but for 2008, I'm not too hopeful.

San Diego Padres

Looking at the San Diego lineup always makes me laugh before I begin to wonder how this team ever managed to win 89 and 88 games the past two years. Looking at their pitching, however, always drops my jaw - the rotation and bullpen have been stunningly good. The team made no major changes this off-season, so look for more of the same out of San Diego.

Lineup

• RF Brian Giles
• 2B Tadahito Iguchi
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
• 1B Adrian Gonzalez
• SS Khalil Greene
• C Josh Bard
• CF Jim Edmonds
• LF Scott Hairston

Rotation

• Jake Peavy
• Chris Young
• Greg Maddux
• Randy Wolf
• Mark Prior

Closer: Trevor Hoffman

Thoughts...

Part of the reason for the atrocious San Diego offense has to be Petco Park, right? Over the past three seasons, it has finished dead last each year in runs scored. I feel like some of the causation lies with the lineup that calls it home, but perhaps not. Adrian Gonzalez, for example, hit 10 HR at home and 20 on the road in 2007. Either way, the ballpark is yet another reason to draft pitchers, not hitters, from this team.

Speaking of Gonzalez, he spent the off-season working with Tony Gwynn and is looking to improve on 30/100/101 from last season. If only he didn't play at Petco, he'd be climbing the ranks of first basemen quickly. Still, keep your eyes on him in the middle of the draft - even if you get a first baseman early, Gonzalez looks great in a utility spot.

Seriously, though, most of the lineup isn't worth owning. It's funny to see Giles in the leadoff spot after having witnessed his power heydey in Pittsburgh, but he's no longer a power hitter. He's not worth owning in most leagues. Iguchi won't hit for power like he did in Chicago, and there are probably better options at second base. Kouzmanoff was hitting .108 a month into last season - even though he turned it around, I don't like him that much as my corner infielder. Honestly, most of this lineup isn't worth owning unless you're in a 32 team league.

Peavy and Young, however, are definitely worth owning. Great things can be expected of both in 2008, and I can't praise either one enough. Maddux still gets guys out, somehow, and could be worth drafting if you're looking to grab a starter late. ESPN called Mark Prior "the ultimate fantasy sleeper" because of his injury history, and I can't disagree. He is very talented and on an incentive-laden deal, but he's already out until May. If you are willing to take the risk, you could potentially reap huge rewards.

Finally, I'll close with the closer. Trevor Hoffman has been so good for so long that he won't lose the job unless he retires or suddenly stops throwing strikes. He can't be called an elite closer because he doesn't strike guys out, but he can be counted on for saves and makes a reliable number two. Heath Bell would be next-in-line, should anything happen because of age or ineffectiveness.

This Padres team is surprising. It's hard to determine whether Petco deflates the statistics of the lineup and inflates those of the rotation, or whether the outstanding rotation and terrible lineup create the illusion of a pitcher's park. Either way, from San Diego, draft the pitchers early and often, but take hitters at your own risk.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost amidst the splashes of Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera and Erik Bedard changing teams was the exile of Joe Torre from New York. The guy may not have been able to bring home the hardware since 2000, but he's still an outstanding manager who did wonders in the never-ending spotlight in New York. The Dodgers are hoping he can bring some of that magic out to the West coast and help them compete in a suddenly tough division in 2008.

Lineup

• SS Rafael Furcal
• LF Juan Pierre
• RF Matt Kemp
• CF Andruw Jones
• 2B Jeff Kent
• 1B James Loney
• C  Russell Martin
• 3B Nomar Garciaparra (Andy LaRoche)

Rotation

• Brad Penny
• Derek Lowe
• Chad Billingsley
• Hiroki Kuroda
• Jason Schmidt

Closer: Takashi Saito

Thoughts...

Whether you love or hate Juan Pierre, it's impossible to argue that he isn't a prolific base stealer. He's not going to pass Ricky Henderson anytime soon, but the Dodgers seem unlikely to swallow their pride and let him ride the bench in favor of Andre Ethier. He and Furcal should form a duo that is on base constantly and scores a ton of runs, with Furcal being a little more well-rounded and contributing more in other categories. Nonetheless, Pierre did hit .293 at season's end last year.

I'm very big on Andruw Jones to rebound this season. His defense guarantees him regular playing time even if he struggles at the plate, and though I doubt he'll return to 51/128, a 35/110 season (with 95 runs to boot) is a very good possibility. Looks great in the tenth round in many leagues.

People keep waiting for Saito to fail, but age has yet to take its toll on the Japanese import. The very capable Jonathan Broxton is waiting in the wings, and draftable (just like Brian Fuentes and many others) for his stats in relief and as a handcuff to one of fantasy's better closers the past two years.

Brad Penny, notorious for second half collapses, had an ERA of only 3.03 at season's end in 2008. He won 16 and struck out 135 - these numbers don't make him a staff ace, but they certainly make him worth drafting as a number two or three. If you can move him in July, it's a bonus, but if you have those numbers at season's end, you've done better than you realize. Free-agent-to-be Derek Lowe also deserves a look--he quietly struck out 147 last year and kept the ERA below 4.00 for the third straight year. Not stud numbers, but they look good rounding out a staff.

Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention the young guns on this team. Matt Kemp still looks a little better in keeper leagues, because he hasn't put together a full season yet and can't quite shake Andre Ethier in that outfield logjam. Still, he'll be great when he puts it all together. James Loney has been raking in spring training (.423 average at the time of this post), which isn't an end-all but certainly makes me optimistic for a big year. Be wary of expecting too much from Russell Martin in the way of steals - most catchers cannot keep up that pace for long. He's still a very valuable commodity at a position with no depth, though. Finally, Andy LaRoche is out 8-10 weeks, and with Nomar also missing the start of the season, third base is for the taking. It's not necessary to draft him, but put him on a watch list as he recovers.

Dodgertown is hoping for another World Series trip in this, the 20th anniversary Kirk Gibson's famous home run. They have the talent to win games, and the leader to take them to the playoffs in Joe Torre. There's plenty of reason for hope in 2008.

Colorado Rockies

What a magical season for Colorado in 2007! They lose their three time All-Star closer to four consecutive blown saves, only to pick up a closer who would have an ERA under 1.00 in the post season. They suddenly become unbeatable at the most important time of year and have a run all the way to the World Series. With a team like that, who would want to make a change? Not Colorado, who made no major moves this off-season.

Lineup

• CF Willy Taveras
• SS Troy Tulowitzki
• LF Matt Holliday
• 1B Todd Helton
• 3B Garret Atkins
• RF Brad Hawpe
• C Yorvit Torrealba
• 2B Jayson Nix

Rotation

• Jeff Francis
• Aaron Cook
• Ubaldo Jimenez
• Franklin Morales
• Jason Hirsch

Closer: Manny Corpas

Thoughts...

Zach and I both agree that it's a mystery why Taveras doesn't get more acclaim in the fantasy baseball world. He can be had fairly late, and stole 33 bases despite a leg injury limiting him to just under 100 games. 50 is not an unreasonable expectation. 

I like Francis. He's 27 this year, a great age for pitchers to have outstanding seasons. Better yet, he's been increasing his strikeout rate and decreasing his walk rate. He was a steady performer for me last year and absolutely can be had for a great price in 2008.

If you own Corpas, grab Fuentes as a handcuff. Fuentes is a three-time All-Star and even as a set-up man, he should give you solid peripherals. 

What a lineup. Holliday belongs in the first round and you know he will be productive this year. If only Hawpe could hit left-handed pitching... hope that his .214 average against lefties doesn't limit his playing time if you draft him. Atkins is a solid third baseman and I like him in the fifth round, if only because I'm not big on most of the late third basemen. Finally, it's easy to love Helton because he's been so steady for so long, but he's no longer worth starting at first base. 

Look for Colorado to define itself as it always has: big offense and just enough pitching to get by. Still, if Francis can improve, Cook can take a step forward, and the two prospects begin to grow, this team could put it all together and be World Series-caliber for years to come.

Cleveland Indians

This Cleveland squad is keeping intact the same roster that collapsed infamously against Boston in last year's playoffs. Some would say that's good, it's a good squad; others would say "their competition is improving, they need to also." To me, this team has plenty of room to improve without major changes in 2008. 

Lineup:

• CF Grady Sizemore
• 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
• DH Travis Hafner
• C Victor Martinez
• 1B Ryan Garko
• SS Jhonny Peralta
• LF David Delucci/Jason Michaels
• RF Franklin Gutierrez
• 3B Casey Blake

Rotation:

• C.C. Sabathia
• Fausto Carmona
• Jake Westbrook
• Paul Byrd
• Cliff Lee

Closer: Joe Borowski

Thoughts...

Quickly, on the studs: Sizemore is an outstanding contributor in five categories with room to improve (if he keeps bringing up the batting average against lefties, he'll be downright scary). Martinez is there with Martin as the best catcher in fantasy; I believe Martinez is a little more dependable because his value doesn't come as much from steals. CC is a great pitcher in a walk year, and I like him to perform big. Finally, I think Pronk belongs in this category. He's universally expected to rebound and I can't disagree.

The team has two weaknesses, in my opinion: corner outfielder and closer. There are rumors they're in the market for a corner outfielder, but nothing has materialized yet (I'd love for the Indians and Pirates to resume talks about Jason Bay if he gets off to a good start). Anyone they add to this lineup would have great value. The closer issue is more me not trusting Borowski than anything else. He's signed through this year, and will keep the job as long as he remains more or less effective.

Some experts have expressed some worry about Carmona and CC because of the innings each piled up last year (215 and 241, respectively). I would worry more about Carmona being affected, but the team is being cautious with both of them. They're both extremely valuable and I think the Indians will take care of them throughout the year; this means they might occasionally miss a start but shouldn't have an extended DL stay. 

I'm not particularly optimistic about the rest of the team, though Garko could hit 30 if he matures this year. I'd like to see a big outfield bat added more than anything else, but I think this team improves by adding Hafner for a full season. The Tribe will be right there with Detroit once again when 2008 ends. 

Minnesota Twins

Previous Team Analyses

The Minnesota Twins lost Torii Hunter this year, but in my opinion their offense looks better than ever. On the other hand, it could be decades until their pitching resembles the years that Santana was the ace, and with the additional loss of Garza and the foreshadowed struggles of Liriano--look at his Spring Training numbers--the team will struggle to win in 2008.

Lineup:

• Carlos Gomez
• Brendan Harris
• Joe Mauer
• Justin Morneau
• Delmon Young
• Michael Cuddyer
• Jason Kubel
• Mike Lamb
• Adam Everett

Rotation:

• Francisco Liriano
• Livan Hernandez
• Scott Baker
• Boof Bonser
• Kevin Slowey

Closer: Joe Nathan

Thoughts...

New comers Carlos Gomez, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Michael Lamb, and Adam Everett replaced half of the lineup. With Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer coming off down-years in comparison with 2006, this lineup led me to consider the Twins my darkhorse for the season. While the Twins were conservative on the basepaths last year, Gomez should steal 30+ bags even in a platoon for most of the year. Jose Reyes once described the former Mets prospect as "faster than he is", so the guy earned a spot on my radar prematurely. Along with Bourne, Upton, and Taveras, Gomez seems to be a late option 4th/5th outfielder who can keep you competitive in the steals category, though provide little else.

Delmon Young is the only other acquisition that will provide fantasy relevance. He is a legitimate threat to go 20-20 and should be a five category producer. Guys like Young and Kemp make me question reaching for Markakis, Pence, and Hart in the middle rounds of drafts, since I just don't see a huge difference. In other words, Young is a steal in most drafts.

The "regulars" should all see improvement with a stronger lineup. Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 after the All Star Break, so is a solid sleeper. Morneau was not as fortunate, hitting only 7 of his 31 bombs after the Break and seeing his average drop to .243--for this reason I'd take Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Travis Hafner ahead of him. Joe Mauer hasn't averaged double digit HRs or SBs over the past three seasons, but a likely increase in RBIs and AVG does keep him a tier above Posada and company.

The pitching isn't that good. Liriano is going at about the right spot, since the risk-reward is more manageable in the 10th round. Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey struggled last year, and with Phillip Humber and Matt Guerrier pressing them for those rotation spots, they will have to perform consistently to be worth picking up. Baker and Hernandez really aren't worth paying attention to unless they seem hot to start the season, to which you will promptly pick them up and trade them as quickly as possible.

The last thing that should be addressed is Joe Nathan. I think he will have better peripherals than Putz, K-Rod, or even Papelbon, but the looming chance of a trade this summer makes me rank him beneath those three.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona, with a bunch of no-name youngsters, managed to quietly win more games than any National League team in 2007. This off-season, they made a great move by adding Dan Haren to their rotation (Randy Johnson coming back is another good addition), but made a nonsensical one - in my opinion - by trading away the league leader in saves.

Lineup:

• CF Chris Young
• SS Orlando Hudson
• 1B Conor Jackson
• LF Eric Byrnes
• 3B Mark Reynolds
• RF Justin Upton
• SS Stephen Drew
• C Chris Snyder

Rotation:

• Brandon Webb
• Dan Haren
• Randy Johnson
• Doug Davis
• Micah Owings

Closer: Brandon Lyon

Thoughts...

I really can't understand why they moved Valverde. Had they moved him to acquire Haren, it would make more sense, but they didn't. Hopefully Lyon can pick up the slack, but I'm not drafting him to save 47 this year.

Webb is absolutely a stud, in the class of Peavy and Santana. I've seen Haren called a low-end Number 1. I'd draft him as a 2 if I could, but he ought to be solid (recall this discussion of Johan Santana and the effect of a move to the NL). Randy Johnson appears to be healthy, but draft him expecting a DL stint at some point this year. 

This team is a keeper owner's dream. Justin Upton has been called many things, generally involving the words "talented" and "wow." There will be growing pains this season, but he's definitely worth owning in keeper leagues. Stephen Drew should improve this year, and I like him if you miss the top 3 at shortstop. Also, Conor Jackson is the forgotten first basemen. If you have a power-hitting team but need an average boost, Jackson is a guy going undrafted who could challenge for a batting title this year. Keep that in mind in Round 23.

Eric Byrnes has steadily improved since finding a home in Arizona. 25/25 is a reasonable expectation, and even though I don't expect him to steal 50 bases again this year, he's a producer in many categories. Chris B. Young could also go 25/25, but he needs to bring the batting average up to be a major contributer. Still, these guys that contribute in many categories are always valuable in fantasy.

The youth movement is on, but the team isn't sacrificing any wins with this young lineup. Be prepared to grow with some of these guys, but the ceiling is high for everyone on this roster.

Chicago White Sox

Team Analyses

Chicago has decided to trade their farm away and build as if they are a win-now team, which by most accounts they are not. However, for fantasy purposes the lineup has a lot of potential, especially when batting at the launching pad of U.S. Cellular.

Lineup

• Orlando Cabrera
• Nick Swisher
• Jim Thome
• Paul Konerko
• Jermaine Dye
• A.J. Pierzynski
• Josh Fields
• Carlos Quentin
• Danny Richar

Rotation

• Mark Buehrle
• Javier Vazquez
• Jose Contreras
• John Danks
• Gavin Floyd

Closer: Bobby Jenks

Thoughts...

Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher are going to put up great numbers in their new home. Cabrera gets to lead off for a potent offense, and since Thome and Konerko should decline into more doubles/sacrifice fly hitters, Cabrera should get the green light. I think he could easily go 15 HR, 30 SB with an average just under .300, which are great numbers. Swisher, on the other hand, would be lucky to bat .280, though his OBP should yield a ton of runs. In his new, much friendlier confines, he's a legitimate threat for 35+ HRs, and is slipping too far in drafts.

Thome, Konerko, and Dye are all pretty old. I was excited when I heard Konerko might go to the Angels, because of these three I see him as the most likely to rebound. However, it's looking like he'll stay nestles between the aging sluggers. All three should give you about 30 HRs, which isn't anything to scoff at, though their averages should decline. Thome and Dye carry the most injury risk, so I'd suggest choosing an upside-youngster instead.

Fields and Quentin are the youngsters. Fields probably isn't ready to bat well over .270, and at a deep 3B position isn't worth the hassle. Quentin is going undrafted in  a lot of leagues, and should provide good speed in a deeper league or as a 5th OF in some formats.

The pitching is pretty bad. Jenks and Vazquez are both underrated at their respective positions. I'll make this brief-no other pitcher on the team is worth owning. If your a raving White Sox fan, draft Garland out of sentiment.

Detroit Tigers

Team Analyses

Detroit made one of the big splashes this off-season, picking up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida. The trade was odd in that the Detroit offense was already outstanding, but they moved to strengthen it anyway instead of pushing for the available stud pitchers. They may be able to win a lot of games 10-8 with a lineup that averages over 4 All-Star appearances per batter.

Lineup:

• CF Curtis Granderson
• 2B Placido Polanco
• 3B Miguel Cabrera
• RF Magglio Ordonez
• DH Gary Sheffield
• 1B Carlos Guillen
• SS Edgar Renteria
• LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
• C Ivan Rodriguez

Rotation:

• Justin Verlander
• Kenny Rogers
• Jeremy Bonderman
• Dontrelle Willis
• Nate Robertson

Closer: Todd Jones

Thoughts...

The first seven hitters are all worth owning. Granderson stole 26 bags last year, while attempting only 27-I think the steals are for real but some experts worry that the lineup won't run due to the presence of Cabrera. Needless to say, I disagree, and Granderson will outperform his draft position even as high as the mid-third round. Polanco is the most overrated of the bunch - he won't contribute power or steals. He will score plenty of runs at the top of this lineup but it's unlikely he'll hit .341 in 2008. Ordonez is also overrated slightly in my opinion. .300/25/100/100 are appropriate expectations, rather than a batting title with 120/140. Still, I like all seven players throughout the draft.

I cannot wait for this team to get a real closer, but it's almost certainly going to take another year. Joel Zumaya, the "closer-in-waiting," is out until June or later, and probably won't be effective enough to close this year. Jones will have to hold down the fort for one more season, and though I don't think he'll have great peripherals, he's worth owning because he closes for one of the top teams in the game.

A couple of positional notes: Enjoy Carlos Guillen's last year of shortstop eligibility. All signs indicate he will play first base for the entire year (barring an injury to Renteria, I suppose), which means that he won't be eligible at shortstop in 2009. Also, Brandon Inge has done some work at catcher. If he can get some games behind the plate, then some regular at-bats at DH because of a Sheffield injury, he may give you some good production from a position with no depth.

Scheduling quirk: The Tigers play all of their games against the Red Sox and Yankees by May 11, and six of nine against the Angels by May 29. Their fade last year will not repeat itself. They end the year with a bunch of games against the Royals, Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, and Rays, meaning that Tigers are worth targeting when you're trying to strengthen your team in mid-season.

I really can't say enough good things about this team, from both a fantasy perspective and a baseball perspective. I like them to win a lot of games with that big offense, and Verlander is a big game pitcher who can win them some games in the playoffs. If Willis can return to form and Jones can somehow keep it together, they'll be a team to reckon with this October.

Kansas City Royals

Previous Team Analyses

Kansas City has been making strides over the past few years, with the owner showing a willingness to pour some money into his struggling franchise. My concern for the team is that they can't compete with the Tigers or the Indians for at least two years, and after that I expect the Twins rebuilding operations to have paid off. However, once the effects of the ridiculous White Sox spending fades, these guys shouldn't dwell at the bottom of their division.

Lineup

• David DeJesus
• Mark Grudzielanek
• Mark Teahen
• Jose Guillen
• Billy Butler
• Ross Gload
• Alex Gordon
• John Buck
• Tony Pena Jr.

Rotation

• Gil Meche
• Brian Bannister
• Zack Greinke
• Jorge De La Rosa
• Kyle Davies

Closer: Joakim Soria

Thoughts...

As always, it is worth mentioning that this is FoxSports projected lineup, and I think that it will change dramatically for the Royals. Joey Gathright is proving his worth during Spring Training, having already stolen seven bases. Alex Gordon will work his way into the middle of the order, creating a possible 1-5 of Gathright, DeJesus, Teahen, Butler, and Gordon, which is a formidable opening five.

I'm a big fan of Gordon and Butler, as both carry a solid upside even in shallow leagues. Despite opening off last season with more disappointment than a 2007 Royals 3B sleeper had hype--yes, same person--the rookie still approached 20-20. He won't have the runs, average, or RBI totals that Wright will, but if he bats .280 and approaches 100 RBI with 25 HR, 25 SB stats, he will be a steal. Wright is going with the third pick, Gordon with the 135th. Yahoo! has Butler grossly misranked, and in a low to middle competitive league he will be there late. He should be owned in all leagues, since he serves as a reliable bench player due to OF/1B eligibility.

The pitching isn't anything to brag about, but you could do worse than Bannister and Greinke. I'd take both ahead of Meche, whose surprising season last year has less chance of repeating than either youngster has of breaking out.

Soria is a good guy to fill your bullpen with. He had great peripherals last year, and still was tagged as "inconsistent". As a former Rule 5 selection, he should improve heading into his sophomore season. Throw out May last year, and the rookie had only one month with a BAA above .208. He's falling in drafts because he's closing for a bad team, but with a Post-All Star WHIP of .80 and BAA of .183, he's very underrated.

Washington Nationals

Previous Team Analyses

The Nationals enter a new ballpark and a new season with new hope. They were an okay team last year, and they've made some roster adjustments, but haven't done enough to get beyond the title of "okay." Here's the roster manager Manny Acta will take into Nationals Park in 2008.

Lineup:

• SS Christian Guzman
• CF Lastings Milledge
• 3B Ryan Zimmerman
• 1B Dimitri Young/Nick Johnson
• RF Austin Kearns
• LF Wily Mo Pena
• 2B Ronnie Belliard
• C Paul Lo Duca

Rotation:

• Shawn Hill
• John Patterson
• Jason Bergmann
• John Lannan
• Matt Chico

Closer: Chad Cordero

Thoughts...

I'll begin this analysis the way I always do: Chad Cordero is a good but not great closer, will probably get traded at midseason and end up in middle relief for a contender, but is worthy of drafting as your number two closer. Handcuff him with Jon Rauch, especially because Cordero's walk rate has been increasing over the past three seasons. 

Lastings Milledge was the Nats' big acquisition this offseason, and it's a mystery how he fell out of favor so quickly in New York. I'd imagine he would look good in the New York outfield while Moises Alou recovers from injury, but he's in Washington nonetheless. Still, if he can get his personal act together, he is the kind of guy who can captivate fans and go 15/15. He won't carry your outfield but has plenty of upside. Don't write him off the way New York did.

The rest of the Washington outfield provides some power potential at the end of the draft. Austin Kearns has never lived up to the billing since coming from Cincinnati, but maybe leaving RFK will help him bump up to a 20 HR season. Wily Mo Pena, another former Red, took a longer path to Washington, but finally has a starting job. We'll see if he can put it all together this year in our nation's capital - I have been grabbing him in 5-OF leagues.

John Patterson had an excellent 2005 season before being bit by the injury bug. All reports indicate he will be healthy this year, and he can be had for nothing in most fantasy leagues. Facing the Mets and Phillies isn't a recipe for stardom, but the 3.13 ERA and 185 strikeouts from 2005 indicate that he knows how to pitch. In deeper leagues, don't forget about him.

Ryan Zimmerman is the one member of this team worth owning. He's only 23 years old and still learning how to play at the major league level, but he already can be counted on for 20 HR and 90 runs and RBI as a floor. He may not steal many bases while hitting third, but Zimmerman can be counted on for four category production. If you miss the third basemen in the early rounds, Zimmerman could give you great value later on.

Zimmerman and Cordero are worth drafting in just about every format, but take the rest of the roster at your own peril. There's some potential, though it's hard to say whether Nationals Park will be better for hitters or fielders, which makes it that much more difficult to determine which sleepers will pan out. They ought to be "okay" again this year, but there's not a lot of fantasy potential for even "okay" from these guys.

Florida Marlins

Previous Team Analyses

The Florida franchise lost two of its brightest stars this off-season, with Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis departing for Detroit and bringing a slew of prospects in return. Fortunately, this team has been through this situation many times in its short history, losing names from Gary Sheffield to Josh Beckett from the two Championship rosters. Here's the latest edition of their lineup (look for a few of these guys to end up on the trading block in the next few years).

Lineup:

• SS Hanley Ramirez
• RF Jeremy Hermidia
• 2B Dan Uggla
• LF Josh Willingham
• 3B Dallas McPherson/Jorge Cantu/Jose Castillo
• 1B Mike Jacobs
• CF Cameron Maybin
• C Matt Treanor

Rotation: 

• Scott Olsen
• Sergio Mitre
• Andrew Miller
• Rick Vanden Hurk
• Mark Hendrickson

Closer: Kevin Gregg

Thoughts...

When examining bad teams, I always start with the closers. Closer is the easiest position for a player on a bad team to have fantasy relevance, but of course, that isn't the case here. Gregg and his $2.5 million salary will probably be traded at some point this season, and it's unlikely he'll close for another team. Even while in Florida, he won't be among the elite closers, and I won't be drafting him early on draft day.

Hanley Ramirez is simply outstanding. There's been talk of him hitting third (with Cameron Maybin taking over the leadoff spot), which would be bad news for his owners, but he'll be a five category producer regardless. If he falls in the order, he likely won't steal bases at the same rate, and potentially could hit for a lower average (he only hit .297 in 165 ABs there last season). Ramirez offers better potential for five-category production than his counterpart Jose Reyes, but probably carries a higher risk of falling on his face without Cabrera around.

Speaking of Cabrera, let's discuss his replacements at third. ... Okay, that about covers it. None of the three potential replacements (Castillo, Cantu, or McPherson) will likely lock down the job, and none of them have the potential to produce like their predecessor. 

Cameron Maybin is an interesting prospect, and I expect he'll enter fantasy conversations in 2009. He has only 49 big league at-bats, so this season will likely be one that takes him up and down. Nevertheless, Maybin was an important part of the Cabrera trade for a reason, and he'll probably push Ramirez down in the order in the not-too-distant future. Andrew Miller, another important piece of the trade, will get the chance to join their rotation this year. My guess is the Phillies and Mets will knock him around, but he's too talented to struggle all season. You don't need to draft him, but keep his name on your radar in keeper and dynasty leagues. He'll be the ace of this staff soon.

Remember when Josh Willingham had catcher eligibility? Those were the days... Now that he's just an outfielder, he has little to no fantasy value. Dan Uggla's average plummeted to .245 last season. It's nice to get 30 HR from second base, but that average is awful. Aaron Hill later in the draft might look better in your lineup.

If we turn back the clock two seasons, Jeremy Hermida would be a popular pick late in drafts. Two seasons of injury and mediocre production have destroyed the hype surrounding him, meaning that he generally goes undrafted. After .300, 12 HR and 41 RBI in the second half last year, though, he may be worth watching in deeper leagues in 2008.

Overall, this Florida team isn't too exciting. In a couple of years, they'll have more fantasy stars (who will promptly be traded), but they're at the point in their cycle where they've just acquired prospects and are waiting for them to mature. Unless you're in keeper or dynasty leagues, I wouldn't look at this team beyond Hanley in the first round.

Philadelphia Phillies

Previous Team Analyses

Did you realize the Phillies have the past two National League MVPs? If they can best the Mets and win another division title, they could easily make it three in a row - stranger yet, they could make it three different infielders in a row [Chase Utley could certainly challenge Rollins and Howard for the title of Most Valuable Phillie]. If their pitching can keep up with their hitting, it could easily be three MVPs in a row.

Lineup:

• SS Jimmy Rollins
• CF Shane Victorino
• 2B Chase Utley
• 1B Ryan Howard
• LF Pat Burrell
• RF Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth
• 3B Pedro Feliz
• C Carlos Ruiz

Rotation:

• Cole Hamels
• Brett Myers
• Kyle Kendrick
• Jamie Moyer
• Adam Eaton

Closer: Brad Lidge/Tom "Flash" Gordon

Thoughts...

This team has three fantasy superstars, and a couple more than aren't far from it. Chase Utley is far and away the best second baseman - although Brandon Phillips and BJ Upton often go one round later, the gap between those two and Utley is much greater. Jimmy Rollins is the team's emotional sparkplug; unfortunately, this is not a measurable stat for fantasy. His statistics keep up, though, and put him in the first round. Ryan Howard might be the best pure power hitter in the game - I would take him ahead of Fielder. 

The guys that aren't far behind: Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels. I've seen Victorino called Carl Crawford Lite, but I'd take him eight rounds later. He'll have higher power numbers, and with a healthy Utley and Howard behind him, his run totals ought to rise. He could easily mature into a stud this year and I love him in middle rounds. Hamels is a fantasy ace, but he's a tier down from the top guys. Another season or two of age and experience could put him above 200 strikeouts, but the ERA probably won't get below 3.00 because Citizen's Bank Ballpark is a modern Coors Field. 

Pedro Feliz was a nice pickup to round out the Philadelphia infield. He won't be the stud his counterparts are, but he can absolutely be counted upon for a minimum of 20 home runs and 80 RBI. In the new ballpark and improved lineup, his power numbers could easily improve to 30 homeruns. The RBI may not jump to 100 unless he hits higher in the order, but it's a reasonable ceiling. The only question with Feliz is his average - it hasn't yet reached the Adam Dunn plateau. He's not being drafted, so keep your eye on him and see if he can put it all together. If so, he'll be a nice option at third base for those who miss out on A-Rod, Wright, and Cabrera.

I'm hoping that Philadelphia won't abuse Brett Myers the way they did last year. Brad Lidge's presence should ensure that Myers remains in the rotation (although he will start the season on the DL, Flash Gordon should hold down the job until Lidge is healthy). In '05 he struck out 208, following with 189 more in '06 before his shuffles to and from the bullpen last year. I look for him to return to those strikeout numbers and win 15 or more as a top pitcher with this lineup behind him.

The rest of the rotation looks awful. Kyle Kendrick has been getting hit hard throughout spring training, Jamie Moyer is ancient, and Adam Eaton may not break camp with the team. Kris Benson also looms as a possibility for one of these spots. None of them are worth owning at this point, and I doubt this will change anytime this year.

Philadelphia has the studs worth owning and little else. It's tough to draft Lidge to be a top closer knowing he's recovering from injury, and it's impossible to draft these starters in a pitcher's park. Philly's success this year, and your fantasy team's, will be thanks to Utley, Rollins, and Howard, or probably won't be achieved at all. 

Atlanta Braves

Previous Team Analyses

For 15 years, the Atlanta Braves have been the model of consistency and success, winning the National League East year in and year out on the strength of a quality pitching staff. Tom Glavine rejoins John Smoltz in 2008, reuniting 2/3 of the core of the division-winning team. The rest of the team blends youth and experience - we'll see if that's a recipe for success in 2008.

Lineup:

• SS Yunel Escobar
• 2B Kelly Johnson
• 3B Chipper Jones
• 1B Mark Teixeira
• RF Jeff Francoeur
• C Brian McCann
• CF Mark Kotsay
• LF Matt Diaz

Rotation:

• John Smoltz
• Tim Hudson
• Tom Glavine
• Chuck James
• JoJo Reyes

Closer: Rafael Soriano

Thoughts...

I'll start the same way John Halpin does at FoxSports: Yunel Escobar has an unbelievable .367 batting average on balls in play. This high number indicates that some of his success last year was based on luck; I'm a big believer in regression to the mean, meaning that I expect his BABIP to drop significantly, and his average to do so by extension. 

2003 was the last time Chipper Jones played 150 games in a season, and that's a terrible shame for fantasy owners. Last year, he put up numbers close to his '03 numbers in 130 games. If he gets 130 games in again this season, he will be an outstanding third baseman - a step down from the top tier because he no longer steals bases, but an outstanding four category producer nonetheless. 

Jeff Francoeur is an underrated middle round outfielder. He's young enough to grow and build on his .293, 19/105 numbers from last year. .300 and 30/100/100 is very possible in a lineup with Mark Teixeira for a full season. Kelly Johnson is another young player with an opportunity to grow. Johnson may spend time in the leadoff spot this year, which would be good for his run production (although less than ideal for his RBI numbers). He can be had late in a draft, and looks good in the second base spot on many fantasy teams.

Smoltz and Glavine may have been equals a generation ago, but now one is a clear fantasy performer and the other is heading to oblivion. Since 1989, John Smoltz's ERA has only been above four in one season: in the strike-shortened 1994 year, he was at 4.14 when the season was ended early. His WHIP has never been above 1.30. He's pitched a full season every year and his numbers have been disgusting. Smoltz might never slow down and looks great as a number two starter heading into 2008. Glavine, on the other hand, has been fading and never was a strikeout pitcher. I'm avoiding him this season.

Parting shots: Tim Hudson has not been the ace in Atlanta, as he was in Oakland. However, he still fills out a rotation well heading into 2008. Count on him for 200 solid innings. I've already addressed Mark Teixeira in Walk Years, and I love him to step up into the elite this year. Brian McCann will not provide the across-the-board numbers of Russell Martin, but with his nagging pinky injury healed he ought to have a better offensive year than he did in 2007. He also got laser corrective surgery for his eyes - he wouldn't be the first player to improve after correcting a vision problem. Finally, keep your eye on Mike Gonzalez as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2009, but he will challenge Soriano for the closer's job at some point.

Atlanta can't turn back time until the late 1990s, much as it would like to. However, with a mixture of youth and experience, they may soon be able to recreate their old success. There's plenty of fantasy talent here, and most of it is available to bargain shoppers in middle and later rounds.

New York Mets

Previous Team Analyses

The New York Mets began 2008 with a bang, acquiring the best player on the market to fulfill their need for a true ace. They're primed to dominate the NL East again, with studs Jose Reyes and David Wright anchoring the lineup. They gave up most of their prospects to get Santana, meaning that it's now or never. This team is good enough to make it now.

Lineup:

• SS Jose Reyes
• 2B Luis Castillo
• 3B David Wright
  
• CF Carlos Beltran
• 1B Carlos Delgado
• LF Moises Alou
• RF Ryan Church
• C Brian Schneider

Rotation:

• Johan Santana
• Pedro Martinez
• John Maine
• Oliver Perez
• Orlando Hernandez

Closer: Billy Wagner

Thoughts...

Alou probably will not see the field before May after being injured with a sports hernia. In his absence, look for primary backup Endy Chavez to pick up at-bats. Chavez, however, is a defensive specialist without much fantasy relevance. If Angel Pagan wins the job, or if the Mets somehow pull off a deal for Xavier Nady, then LF for the Mets will become relevant again. Until that happens, though, consider left field a hole in this lineup.

I discussed Santana here last week, but to summarize: Now that he gets to face pitchers, look for his strikeout totals to jump up. I think he can push 300 at season's end, and with the run support he's guaranteed to get, 20 wins are a lock. He's an absolute stud.

Speaking of studs... Reyes and Wright are both outstanding. I consider the two interchangeable in picks 2, 3, and 4 depending on who is available and what type of team you like to build. I've drafted with Reyes from number two, which allowed me to choose more power hitters knowing I had an early advantage in steals and runs. I also enjoy drafting with Wright, though, because I like having third base filled early, and I can usually pair him with Teixeira and one of Carlos Lee/Lance Berkman/Vlad Guerrero, which fills out all of my big positions in the first three rounds. It's easy to go sleeper hunting later knowing I have these positions filled. 

I'm not as big on Beltran as some others. I can't say exactly why - he's a five category producer in a big-time lineup, but I guess it's the low average. Nonetheless, if he's available in the middle of the second round, he'll definitely be a productive part of your lineup.

John Maine burned out last year after a fantastic four months. He only pitched 90 big league innings in 2006, though, so the fact that this was his first full year could account for some of his struggles. Maine pitched a beautiful game that appeared to bring the Mets out of their slide at the end of last year - I love him in big games. Of course, this doesn't translate into fantasy production, but to me, it indicates that he can pitch and I would honestly like him on my fantasy team. He'll certainly provide wins, but I expect he will contribute across the board for a full season in 2008.

Other players: I like Billy Wagner, especially if you miss out on K-Rod and Nathan. He'll have the saves and the stats to anchor a fantasy bullpen. I don't particularly like Carlos Delgado to have a bounce-back season at 35. I wish the Mets would have a bigger name first baseman, but it looks like they're committed to Carlos in the middle of their lineup. Pedro will be okay but probably suffer one DL stint this year; he can still pitch but is no longer the overpowering ace he was in the 90s. 

The Mets are loaded for 2008 and beyond, and Reyes, Wright, and Santana will all be first round fantasy picks for years to come. The rest of the lineup can fill out fantasy rosters; never underestimate the importance of being on a winning team when you're taking a guy to round out your team. Sorry Jimmy Rollins, but the Mets are the team to beat in the NL East in 2008.

Seattle Mariners

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA OAK TEX

2007 marked a season of disappointment for fantasy owners regarding the Seattle Mariners. The Felix Hernandez bandwagon never really got going, as he was good but far from great. Richie Sexson was awful. Raul Ibanez took a step back. Baseball-wise, they did win 88 games, and fantasy-wise, things weren't really as bad as they seemed. Now, with the addition of Erik Bedard, the Mariners look like a team poised for success. Imagine trying to take 2 out of 3 against a team trotting out Bedard and King Felix on back-to-back nights! Here's the team that will be supporting the big duo:

Lineup:

• RF Ichiro Suzuki
• DH Jose Vidro
• 3B Adrian Beltre
• LF Raul Ibanez
• 1B Richie Sexson
• C Kenji Johjima
• RF Brad Wilkerson
• SS Yuniesky Betancourt
• 2B Jose Lopez

Rotation: 

• Erik Bedard
• Felix Hernandez
• Jarrod Washburn
• Carlos Silva
• Miguel Batista

Closer: J.J. Putz

Thoughts...

Games played by Ichiro in his seven seasons in Seattle: 157, 157, 159, 161, 162, 161, 161. Runs scored by Ichiro in each of those seasons: 127, 111, 111, 101, 111, 110, 111. There are clocks that don't offer this kind of day-in, day-out consistent performance, which is why Ichiro is absolutely worthy of the early draft pick you'll spend on him. If he starts off slow in April, as he often does, look to pry him off of an unsuspecting owner, because I guarantee he'll reward you for it in May (career numbers: April BA .299, May BA .370).

Johjima is definitely a step down from the top tier of catchers, but he's no slouch. He carries less risk than the guys being chosen around him, in my opinion, because he has two seasons of solid production under his belt. He may not be a sexy pick because he doesn't offer star potential, but if you don't want to worry about your catcher spot he's the guy you need to target.

Erik Bedard has now escaped the clutches of the AL East, and fantasy owners should be thrilled. Regular match-ups with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are replaced by regular match-ups with the Athletics, Angels, and Rangers. Texas can hit, but Anahiem's offense is mediocre and Oakland is rebuilding. Safeco is a good pitcher's park and Bedard should be a stud pitcher this year.

Richie Sexson is fading fast, in my opinion. He could give you the high-HR, low-BA production of an Adam Dunn if he returns to form, but he looked awful last year. When power hitters are unable to turn on fastballs, they never can return to form. I personally will look at younger options if I'm scraping the bottom tier of first basemen this season. 

Brandon Morrow is the pitcher's name to remember. If anything happens to Putz, he will be next in line for saves, but he also will probably jump into the rotation should anything happen to the starting five. He has immense potential and pitched very well in winter league ball. If you're looking to stash relief pitchers, keep his name on your radar, because he could become very valuable if thrust into a larger role this year.

The M's have some fantasy studs on their roster in Ichiro, Bedard, King Felix, and Putz. They have guys who can fill out your roster in Beltre and Johjima, and of course the names you should avoid at all costs. 2008 ought to be a year of satisfaction after the disappointment that was 2007 in Seattle.

Texas Rangers

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA OAK

The lineup and the rotation in Texas may change from year-to-year, but the team never really does. It's always a power-hitting lineup without a great rotation. Draft accordingly.

Lineup:

• 2B Ian Kinsler
• DH Frank Catalanotto
• SS Michael Young
• RF Milton Bradley
• 3B Hank Blalock
• CF Josh Hamilton
• C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
• 1B Ben Broussard
• LF Marlon Byrd

Rotation:

• Kevin Millwood
• Vicente Padilla
• Kason Gabbard
• Brandon McCarthy
• Jason Jennings

Closer: Eddie Guardado/CJ Wilson

Thoughts...

On bad teams, I like to look at the closer first. If a team has a talented closer, he's worth drafting to see if he'll produce saves when given the chance and get traded to a contender in mid-season. Unfortunately, Texas has a huge logjam in the back of the bullpen. CJ Wilson, along with Joaquin Benoit, closed games at the end of last season, but the club brought in free agents Eddie Guardado and Kazuo Fukumori. Right now, any of the four could end up with the job. Fantasy translation: Stay away.

Kevin Millwood has historically had some productive fantasy seasons - never really top numbers, but good enough to merit drafting as a 4 or 5. Not last season. He had some injury problems, but his ERA also ballooned over 5.00 while his strikeouts from 157 to 123. Generally speaking, I like veteran pitchers to rebound toward their career numbers (coming off good seasons and bad), but I can't really justify drafting Millwood. Give him the month of April before you give him a roster spot on your team.

Josh Hamilton is a popular sleeper pick whose ADP may have risen above that of a true sleeper. Although he is an awesome story and a guy who could fill a number two outfielder spot, you shouldn't draft him as if he will be a number two. Be mindful of the difference, but look to grab him when appropriate. 

I always forget about Ian Kinsler, and I know I'm going to pay for it in one of my drafts this season. He's BJ Upton minus batting average, but he's usually available five rounds later. Unfortunately, he may not give you the RBI numbers you want because he hits so high in the lineup. Nonetheless, have your eye on him to give great value in the middle rounds of a draft. 

Offensively, this team has potential at many positions. Blalock can be had late and potentially provide 25 HRs at 3B, Salty is widely projected to be a good fantasy catcher, and even Milton Bradley is worth a look if you think he can stay healthy. I don't think I could justify drafting a single pitcher from this team, though. 

Oakland Athletics

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL LAA

The Oakland Athletics have consistently been one of baseball's most resourceful small market franchises. Generally manager Billy Beane has been popularly acclaimed for his book Moneyball, but this season he seems to have run out of magic. The A's dealt their stars to replenish their farm system, and they just don't have the talent to win a lot of baseball games this season. Here's how they might look on Opening Day.

Lineup:

• LF Travis Buck
• 1B Daric Barton
• 3B Eric Chavez
• DH Jack Cust
• RF Emil Brown
• SS Bobby Crosby
• CF Chris Denorfia
• 2B Mark Ellis
• C Kurt Suzuki

Rotation:

• Joe Blanton
• Chad Gaudin
• Rich Harden
• Justin Duchscherer
• Lenny DiNardo

Closer: Huston Street

Thoughts...

Honestly, what's to like? I suppose I'll start with Jack Cust and Mark Ellis. Neither of these two is usually drafted, and in leagues with five outfield spots or extra middle infield spots, both of these could be sources of cheap power with literally your final pick. Cust isn't going to hit .300 anytime soon, but he could easily hit 35 HR if he could stay healthy for the entire year. Ellis hit 19 HR last year, and those would look very nice in a MI spot in bigger leagues.

Rich Harden is up there with Ben Sheets in risk-reward ratio. If he could ever piece together a full season, he'd easily be a number three fantasy starter, with the potential to even be a two. If you can get him late, he could be worth a gamble, but know that it's a pretty big gamble after his injury history. 

Huston Street is a talented fantasy closer, but he belongs outside the top tier. Think of Mike Gonzalez on the 2006 Pirates - he was perfect in the ninth, but the team was so bad it didn't get him enough opportunities. Although he was productive, his only chance of becoming a top closer involved a trade to a contender. If Street is on the market this season, his value will increase; otherwise, look for him as your second closer.

There's not much else to be excited about. Kurt Suzuki could be a mediocre fantasy catcher, useful in two-catcher leagues. Joe Blanton eats innings and has decent strikeout numbers, but his ERA isn't going to end up below 4.00. Chad Gaudin faded badly at the end of last season; if you can convince yourself this is because he pitched exclusively in relief in 2006, then I suppose he's worth a flier. The outfield situation is a mess, and it's not worth drafting any of the prospects because at this point it's still unclear who will start.

Although Oakland is only a year removed from the division title, they aren't going to be competitive this year. Fantasy-wise, there's simply not that much here this season, and I will be looking outside the Bay Area for just about every position in my drafts.

Los Angeles Angels

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN MIL

The Angels are the powerhouse of the American League West, and although they didn't win the Miguel Cabrera Sweepstakes this offseason, they enter 2008 as the favorite to win the division title. I have a soft spot for Vladimir Guerrero, as Zach has already documented, so I'll be pulling for this lineup to provide him a little protection for once this year.

Lineup:

• 3B Chone Figgins
• LF Gary Matthews, Jr.
• RF Vladimir Guerrero
• CF Torii Hunter
• DH Garrett Anderson
• 1B Casey Kotchman
• 2B Howie Kendrick
• C Mike Napoli
• SS Erick Aybar

Rotation:

• John Lackey
• Kelvim Escobar
• Jon Garland
• Jered Weaver
• Joe Saunders
• Ervin Santana

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez

Thoughts...

Things you already know: K-Rod is one of the top closers in fantasy baseball. He puts up awesome numbers across the board and closes for a winning team with excellent starters, a good bullpen, and not enough offense to be winning a lot of blowouts (translation: he gets plenty of save opportunities). Things you may not know: He recently lost his arbitration case. He's in a walk year, and it's been proven time and time again that players in walk years perform above and beyond expectations. K-Rod is looking to cash in this off-season, and I highly recommend you cashing in on him this year.

Kelvim Escobar has put together three productive years and one injured year in his Angels career thusfar. 2008, unfortunately, may fall into the "injured" category. He began last year with shoulder pain and finished last year with shoulder pain, and although rest was prescribed, it apparently hasn't helped. He will be out probably until May, but it's possible the Angels will not rush him back or give him time off during the year if both Saunders and Santana pitch well. He's a popular sleeper pick if he falls, but I would worry about drafting the 2005 version of Escobar rather than the 2007. Caveat Emptor. 

I am a Howie Kendrick fan. I'd love to see him hit higher in the LA order and score some more runs, but I still believe he'll be a very productive second baseman. Everyone agrees that a healthy season for Kendrick will most likely end with a .330 batting average - wouldn't that look great on a team with Adam Dunn or even Juan Pierre? He balances out the HR and SB specialists that otherwise kill your average, and if you're not grabbing Utley, I think that's a great use of your 2B spot.

Vlad is a stud. He may be done stealing bases, but he's still a lock for four category production. Late in the second round or beyond, you're getting great value. John Lackey is also a quality pitcher who is productive across the board. Jon Garland is my favorite pitcher to grab at the end of a draft, while Jered Weaver is generally a good value pick in the middle-to-late rounds.

Some names to keep in mind: Brandon Wood and Juan Rivera. Wood is the organization's top prospect, a big power hitter who plays 3B but could also play shortstop. If Aybar and Macier Izturis do not pan out, or if the Angel lineup is lacking power, Wood could get some serious playing time. He will not hit for a high average but he will bang homeruns - his numbers will work out like those of Adam Dunn, big HRs and low average. Rivera had an excellent 2006 (.310 with 23 HR) but is the odd man out of the outfield rotation right now. Still, Anderson especially is aging, and if any of the four gets injured, Rivera could step in and be extremely productive. If he's not worth drafting, he's certainly worth watching on the waiver wire. He could be the pickup that saves your season.

The Angels have it all (from a fantasy perspective) - the studs, the solid players, and the sleepers. They're a lock to win games consistently, and manager Mike Scioscia will continue to have them play National League-style baseball and win games without the big top-to-bottom lineup of their counterparts. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN

Milwaukee is prepared to play with the Cubs this season for the crown in the National League Central. Ben Sheets, Eric Gagne, and Mike Cameron are all impending free agents with a lot to gain from a big (healthy?) season, and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are bona fide stars. Here's how the team will look on Opening Day.

Lineup:

• 2B Rickie Weeks
• SS J.J. Hardy
• LF Ryan Braun
• 1B Prince Fielder
• RF Corey Hart
• 3B Bill Hall
• CF Mike Cameron (Gabe Gross)
• C Jason Kendall

Rotation:

• Ben Sheets
• Yovani Gallardo
• Jeff Suppan
• Carlos Villanueva
• Chris Capuano

Closer: Eric Gagne

Thoughts...

Their bullpen is really a logjam. It's hard to predict Gagne coming back and being untouchable after his implosion in Boston, but if you expect him to fail, how do you pick the backup closer? Derrick Turnbow is the logical choice, but off-season acquisitions Salomon Torres and David Riske could easily take over the role too. With this type of uncertainly, I'll probably just avoid all of them in my drafts.

ESPN tags Dave Bush as the team's sleeper, but I don't buy it. I suppose he will get starts this year, assuming Sheets will get hurt as usual, but I can't bring myself to believe Bush will do much of anything useful from a fantasy perspective. Gallardo, on the other hand, is a great snag in keeper leagues this year. I can't believe a knee injury is a sign of any future substantial injuries, and he's going to be an excellent pitcher in this league for many years.

Corey Hart is another player who could be excellent this year. ESPN has him hanging around until round 8 in a 10 team league, and I like the 25/25 potential. I'm not predicting this will happen, but wouldn't it be fantastic if Hardy struggled and Hart got moved in front of Fielder and Braun? He wouldn't stop scoring runs the entire season. Even in the six hole, he's a five category producer who looks primed to continue his growth this season.

Rickie Weeks has potential similar to Hart's. He could be the poor man's Brandon Phillips, ten rounds later, come draft day, if you are willing to risk his wrist. Considering the lack of depth at second base, that's a risk I'd be readily willing to take.

I have trouble deciding whether Ryan Braun is more valuable in the outfield or at third base. I'd say he probably looks better at third, but then again, it's easy to pair him with Cabrera at the end of round one and the beginning of round two. He's among the elite at either position, and will be a fantasy stud for years to come (especially if he continues to snag 15-20 bases per season in addition to his prodigious power numbers). 

It hurts Zach to read this, I'm sure, but the Brewers have a good mix of talented youth and motivated veterans. From a baseball perspective, they'll be good, and from a fantasy perspective, they'll be better. Any Brewer not named Kendall is draftable at some point in 2008.

Cincinnati Reds

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT

Cincinnati is the home of the home run. For many years, Coors Field and thin Rocky Mountain Air made Colorado the premier power-hitting team in the game, but Great American Ballpark and the sluggers in Cincy have taken over the title. With that in mind, look to draft mostly hitters, rather than pitchers, from this team.

Lineup:

• CF Ryan Freel (Jay Bruce)
• SS Alex Gonzalez
• RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
• 2B Brandon Phillips
• LF Adam Dunn
• 3B Edwin Encarnacion
• 1B Joey Votto
• C David Ross

Rotation:

• Aaron Harang
• Bronson Arroyo
• Matt Belisle
• Homer Bailey
• Edinson Volquez

Closer: Francisco Cordero

Thoughts...

It's not clear who will play CF, Ryan Freel or Jay Bruce. Whomever starts will be very valuable in fantasy; Freel will give you steals and runs as long as he stays healthy, while Bruce (the number one ranked prospect in baseball this year) will give more power. If Bruce wins the job, he probably won't hit from the leadoff spot, but it's unclear how the lineup will be reshuffled. Keep in mind that Dusty Baker is partial to playing veterans when drafting Bruce. 

Actually, between Griffey and Freel, the chances of a Reds outfielder getting hurt are 99%. So draft Bruce, but know he might not be starting on Opening Day. Either way, he'll be a force sooner rather than later.

Joey Votto has become a popular fantasy name, and after a big September last year it's completely justified. The Dusty Factor still looms over Votto, though, as the Reds exercised the option on Scott Hatteberg. Ideally, Votto will win this job outright, but watch this situation in spring training if you've got your eye on Votto at first.

Aaron Harang is Mr. Reliable, a trait that is vastly underestimated in fantasy baseball, in my opinion. He has 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 4.00 in back-to-back seasons, and even though his home games are in a terrible pitcher's park, he does get to face the Pirates and Cardinals regularly. Similarly, Bronson Arroyo is underrated going into this season. He's no stud, but he's barely being drafted, and I think you can count on him for 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 4.00. He's certainly good enough to get drafted late to round out a staff. Homer Bailey could provide some statistics, but it's more difficult for me to predict that he'll be reliable, especially in such an unfriendly environment.

Brandon Phillips continues to climb closer to the first round, and with good reason. 30/30/100/100 at a position where there's not a lot of depth is outstanding. Adam Dunn is a little one-dimensional for my taste, but he's hit exactly 40 homeruns in 3 straight seasons. You can't buy that kind of consistency, so you just have to hope he doesn't destroy your team's average. Junior Griffey played a whole season but faded badly as the year went on. He's definitely productive when healthy, but his age shows as the season wears on. 

The Reds definitely provide some valuable names in fantasy. They've got the all-around producers and the one-dimensional players, but each type can be an important part of a championship fantasy team. 

Check out the Ask the Experts post for more information on Cincinnati in the upcoming season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL

Hope springs eternal in Pittsburgh, at least until the Steelers start Training Camp in August. Will this be the year everything is different? Well, it seems to be right now. Nobody in Pittsburgh is that enthusiastic about the team for the first time in their 15-year streak of misery and woe. I'm not here to say there's reason to be excited, but... fantasy-wise... there might be a reason to get excited.

Lineup:

• CF Nate McLouth (Nyjer Morgan)
• SS Jack Wilson
• 2B Freddy Sanchez
• 1B Adam LaRoche
• LF Jason Bay
• RF Xavier Nady
• 3B Jose Bautista
• C Ronny Paulino

Rotation: 

• Tom Gorzelanny
• Ian Snell
• Paul Maholm
• Matt Morris
• Zach Duke

Closer: Matt Capps

Thoughts...

This outfield provides some intriguing players. The winner of the Morgan/McLouth battle for center field (probably McLouth as of today) will definitely provide some speed on the basepaths. Neither of these two is being drafted, so you can afford to wait for them. My thoughts on Bay have already been documented; he has five-tool potential and is a good pickup if his ADP falls a bit. Nady can give you 20-25 HR power also. Finally, Ryan Doumit will start in the outfield if (when) Bay or Nady is traded. He has no relevance there but maintains catcher eligibility in most leagues - think of Josh Willingham of Florida two years ago. Mediocre outfield numbers look great if you don't have Russell Martin behind the plate.

Here are some numbers from 2005: 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 innings. If you know your baseball history, you'll recognize that this is Zach Duke's stat line after a midseason call up. Check out this blast from the past from the archives of RotoAuthority. Why has Duke struggled so much since his rookie year? Many theories exist, but former pitching coach Jim Colborn "tweaked" his mechanics and he's been terrible ever since. He's been reunited with his coach from '05, Jeff Andrews, and I'm not saying you should draft him in the first round or at all, but I do think he's got some potential and is worth watching this year.

There are three pitchers worth owning right now: Capps, Snell, and Gorzelanny, in that order. Capps has a stranglehold on the closer's job, and while he won't get you 40 saves, he should give what Mike Gonzalez did two years ago: near perfection in the ninth with very good peripherals. Snell's ERA and WHIP both fell substantially last year, while his strikeout numbers went up slightly. Gorzo needs to lower the WHIP a little to be truly worth owning, but I don't mind having him to round out my rotation. He's young and definitely could improve this season.

The team added nothing to a roster that went 68-94; they traded Salomon Torres from the bullpen and allowed Josh Phelps, who had a strong showing off the bench, to leave in free agency. Still, there might be some reason for excitement. Keep an eye on the outfield, as there are many guys there who could provide different types of value there. The Pirates as my hometown team, and as pathetic as they have been, I can't help but say it: Let's Go Bucs!

St. Louis Cardinals

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU

Wow. I didn't realize how truly terrible this team was until I began my earnest analysis. Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter represent their only star power, but Carpenter won't be back until at least the All-Star Break and Pujols may well have shut it down by then. Even in a bad division, this team doesn't look like it's going to be relevant this year.

Lineup:

• RF Skip Schumaker
• LF Chris Duncan
• 1B Albert Pujols
• 3B Troy Glaus
• CF Rick Ankiel
• C Yadier Molina
• 2B Adam Kennedy
• SS Caesar Izturis (Izturis may bat 9th, with the pitcher hitting ahead of him)

Rotation:

• Adam Wainwright
• Braden Looper
• Joel Pineiro
• Matt Clement
• Anthony Reyes

Closer: Jason Isringhausen

Thoughts...

I know the only reason anyone is reading this analysis is Pujols. Everything I've read indicates his elbow is less than 100% healthy, and he took a lot of wear-and-tear last season. He also has admitted he doesn't want to push his body to the same limits this year (probably because he knows the team will be awful), and will shut it down and opt for surgery if his elbow flares up. This risk makes him less attractive in the first round; however, keep in mind that he's still one of the most prolific hitters in baseball, and if he stays moderately healthy he can carry a fantasy team.

Josh Phelps had an excellent second half in Pittsburgh last season (same division, similarly pitcher-friendly ballpark). If you draft Pujols, grab Phelps on the chance that he could give you 20 HR in a half-season of ABs.

Rick Ankiel is one of Zach's sleepers, and he definitely could be a source of some cheap power late in a draft. Colby Rasmus is the Cards' number-one ranked prospect, and though he isn't draftable, keep his name on your radar screen this year. A strong spring could get him into the lineup early, especially because he is very strong defensively (if Ankiel struggles in center field, bringing Rasmus up would be the easiest change St. Louis could make).

Matt Clement, coming off shoulder surgery, may or may not be ready for Opening Day, but should be in the rotation early in the season. Mark Mulder, also coming off shoulder surgery, has May as his return target, while Chris Carpenter (elbow reconstruction) is trying to be ready by June. All of these guys are risky pick-ups, and to me, Carpenter is the only one who offers much reward. Clement and Mulder aren't going to be having career seasons in 2008 and aren't going to be too useful from a fantasy perspective.

Glaus might get you 30/100, but he'll bring a batting average of .250 along. Duncan has power potential, like Ankiel, and could be worth a late-round pickup. Isringhausen is aging and not a particularly great closer, but the job is his all season, something you can't say about many closers these days. Wainwright is the only rotation guy I'll draft. Overall, there's simply not a lot of promise here, especially if you don't want to take the risk with Pujols in Round 1. Better luck in 2009, St. Louis fans.

Houston Astros

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC

It's been a big off-season for Houston. They've gone quickly through Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Dan Wheeler, and now look to Jose Valverde to bring some stability to the position. They no longer have the Killer B's, but they have a solid foundation with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Fantasy-wise, if not baseball-wise, this should be a strong team.

Lineup:

• CF Michael Bourn
• 2B Kaz Matsui
• SS Miguel Tejada
• 1B Lance Berkman
• LF Carlos Lee
• RF Hunter Pence
• 3B Ty Wigginton
• C JR Towles

Rotation:

• Roy Oswalt
• Wandy Rodriguez
• Brandon Backe
• Felipe Paulino
• Woody Williams

Closer: Jose Valverde

Thoughts...

I'm a big fan of both Berkman and Lee. Run the numbers on Berkman and you'll find an interesting statistical anomaly - he performs significantly better in even-numbered years. This makes him even more attractive, and the multi-position eligibility never hurts. Lee is absolutely consistent, something that I think is very underrated in fantasy. Pence also gives you 20/20 potential in the outfield; I will be very interested to see what he does with a full season.

Their pitching staff is overall a mess. Oswalt has fallen from grace and is now a number 2 starter in fantasy. He's been in a statistical decline for the past couple seasons (falling strikeout numbers and win totals) but nonetheless I would take him as a number 2. Other than him and Valverde, I don't see an Astro pitcher worth touching. They aren't great and playing in such a hitter-friendly ballpark really hurts.

I have nothing bad to say about JR Towles. He is universally expected to go 10/10 or 15/15, which is excellent from a catcher (keep in mind you can probably get him 20 rounds after Russell Martin). If only he weren't batting in the 8th spot...

Everything I read places Tejada at .300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI in Minute Maid Park. With Berkman and Lee behind him, he'll definitely be scoring runs. I'm a little uneasy about the possibility of him doing jail time in midseason, but he goes pretty late and could get you some great value if you miss out on Reyes, Ramirez, and Rollins.

Finally, keep an eye on Bourn and Matsui. As far as I know, both usually go undrafted. If you're in round 20 looking at a team well-stocked with power, these guys could fill out a roster nicely and both could get you a lot of cheap steals. I'm big on targeting specific guys that fill needs in late rounds of a draft, and these are two I will watch closely at the end of drafts and throughout April as the season begins.

Chicago Cubs

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY

I needed a relaxing half hour of posting, so I figured I'd analyze the best team in the majors. Okay, truth is I'm a bit partial to the Cubbies, but 2008 is as good of a year as any to jump on the bandwagon. With a developing farm system and the few offseason acquisition, the North Side of Chicago is looking strong.

Lineup

• Alfonso Soriano
• Kosuke Fukudome
• Derrek Lee
• Aramis Ramirez
• Mark DeRosa
• Geovany Soto
• Ryan Theriot
• Felix Pie

Rotation

• Carlos Zambrano
• Ted Lilly
• Rich Hill
• Jon Leiber
• Jason Marquis/Sean Marshall/Ryan Dempster

Closer: Bob Howry/Kerry Wood/Carlos Marmol

Thoughts...

Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez are all underrated. Soriano's September last year was .320, .354, .754 with 14 homeruns. Despite missing 27 games, he still hit 33 homeruns. His days of 30+ steals are behind him, but a season with a batting average around .300, 35+ HR, and 20-25 steals are what I expect. Lee similarly had a brilliant second half, right around he was a complete year away from wrist surgery. Anyone who watches the Cubs plays knows how smooth the guy's swing is. The last of the big three, Ramirez, struggled through injury but still topped 25 HR and a 100 RBI (kay, to be fair, he had 26 HR and 101 RBI, but it was an off-year).

A lot of people want to know what to expect from Fukudome. I've heard he's a mix between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, and learned this does not mean that he has Ichiro's speed and Matsui's power. Instead, he has the characteristics of the player's that isn't reflected in most leagues--good plate discipline, great fielding, and clutch hitting ability. Unless your team counts OBP, he's probably at best a fourth outfielder with a low ceiling.

Soto and Pie are the youngsters, and while their performances last year ring like the beginning of Tale of Two Cities, I think both will lead decent campaigns this season. Soto should put up a .290-.300 BA with close to 20 HRs, while Pie will struggle with his average but likely hit double digit homeruns (no more than 15) with 25+ SBs. I like both players as sleepers going into this year, but come draft time and at this rate Soto will be going before Johjima, Saltillamachia, and Pudge Rodriguez.

Zambrano is 27, but has a lot of innings under his belt. He's still a fantasy ace, albeit at the expense of your WHIP. Hill on the other hand is looking at his third season, and I predict big things. Both guys should get you 15+ wins and close to 200 K's with a sub-4.00 ERA.

The closer situation is a mess, and there are rumors the Cubs are hoping to acquire Joe Nathan. They won't, but if Marmol gets the starting gig he's likely to perform like the Twins closer. His pitches look like they jump out of the way of bats.

New York Yankees

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL

The New York Yankees are an old team that just keeps getting older. They would be a lot more attractive had they won the Johan Santana sweepstakes... Oh well. Here are the familiar faces.

Lineup:

• LF/1B Johnny Damon
• SS Derek Jeter
• RF Bobby Abreu
• 3B Alex Rodriguez
• C Jorge Posada
• 1B/LF Hideki Matsui
• DH Jason Giambi/Shelley Duncan
• 2B Robinson Cano
• CF Melky Cabrera

Rotation:

• Chien-Mien Wang
  
• Andy Pettitte
• Mike Mussina
• Phil Hughes
• Ian Kennedy

Closer: Mariano Rivera

Thoughts...

A-Rod is the greatest player in fantasy. You already know this, of course, but I love to say it. I got him my mock draft - look for a summary and analysis of both of our teams to come soon.

Jorge Posada batted .338 last year, good for 60 points above his career mark. No chance it happens again. I expect him to age quickly, as most catchers do, but he could be worth a look this year if he falls. Pair him with a guy like Ronny Paulino or JR Towles to minimize your risks if you do take him.

Joba Chamberlain's name doesn't fit in anywhere above, but keep his name in mind as a late-round sleeper. He could be in the rotation or the bullpen right now, but frankly he's an excellent pitcher and could be worth owning in round 22.

With veterans, you can really analyze their previous trends to predict their yearly performance. For example, Johnny Damon usually seems to fade as the season goes on and injuries start to mount. You can count on Posada (and all catchers) to struggle through the heat in July and August. Andy Pettitte will probably have an excellent second half even if he's only mediocre to start the year, so if you don't draft him, see if you can grab him off a frustrated owner later on.

With all the Yankees, keep in mind the age and injury factors. Most are draft-able at some point, and you can expect they'll get around the basepaths and score runs the way they do every year. Just keep in mind injuries and trends when looking at all the veterans available from this squad and you will be in excellent shape for the year.

Baltimore Orioles

Previous Team Analyses: BOS TB TOR

What scares me as a Pittsburgh native is not that the firesale of Baltimore's veterans gives them a better outlook for the future, but that even in the team's current disheveled state they aren't that bad. Okay, only by fantasy standards, as if the eventual departure of Brian Roberts obeys the definition of eventual, they will have only a handful of draftable players.

Lineup

• Brian Roberts
• Luke Scott
• Nick Markakis
• Aubrey Huff
• Ramon Hernandez
• Adam Jones
• Melvin Mora
• Kevin Millar
• Luis Hernandez

Rotation

• Jeremy Guthrie
• Adam Loewen
• Daniel Cabrera
• Troy Patton
• Garrett Olson

Closer: George Sherrill

Thoughts...

There isn't much to be happy about really, save for Nick Markakis. He's among the new gang of Tier 3 outfielders, and stands out among them as likely to improve upon already formidable 2007 numbers. He's good for 25 HR and 20 steals on a team that has little incentive not to swing for the fences or swipe the ill-advised bag. As a second outfielder he's great, especially if you're already looking at a balanced team, and hence worthy of a fifth round pick. However, he's going in the fourth round right now, ahead of guys like Chris B. Young and Torii Hunter, which I think is a mistake. Without many RBI opportunities nor guys behind to drive him in, the five-category outfielder may only hit for three.

Adam Jones is among a "rookie" class of guys like Justin Upton, Felix Pie, and Cameron Maybin. I like him more than the last, but I think he needs another year to develop. Look for Delmon Young 2007 type numbers. The last outfielder, Luke Scott, should be going well before Jones (but he's not). Scott has shown a knack for power playing in a platoon while in Houston, so I consider him a poor-man's version of Josh Hamilton (lower upside, lower risk). Considering him in 4+ outfield leagues or as a bench option.

Brian Roberts is more likely a Cub next season than an Oriole from what the rumormongers are saying, and this will help his value. Either way, 50 SBs seems a bit high, though 40 would be in reach. If you're set to take a 2B early, I recommend taking Phillips or B. J. Upton a round earlier.

Don't draft any of the pitchers. Not even Daniel Cabrera, whose greatest attribute is his symbolic similarity to Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn from Major League. If you really need a late round sleeper, you could do worse than Guthrie. Just not much worse.

Boston Red Sox

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR

To be totally honest, this is one of the easiest fantasy previews to do. Boston is up there with Detroit among teams where I recommend drafting almost everyone. Pittsburgh is also fairly easy because I recommend drafting no one. Anyway, the defending world champs boast a roster that is virtually unchanged from the previous season. Here's a review, for those who have forgotten:

Lineup

• 2B Dustin Pedroia
• 1B Kevin Youkilis
• DH David Ortiz
• LF Manny Ramirez
• 3B Mike Lowell
• RF J.D. Drew
• C Jason Varitek
• CF Jacoby Ellsbury
• SS Julio Lugo

Rotation

• Josh Beckett
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Tim Wakefield
• Clay Buchholz
• Jon Lester

Closer Jonathan Papelbon

Thoughts...

Curt Schilling, for those that haven't heard, is out until at least the All-Star Break, and possibly permanently, after badly injuring his shoulder. He elected to do rehabilitation instead of surgery, which opens the possibility that he could come back late in the year, but overall I consider him completely irrelevant from a fantasy perspective.

Manny Ramirez, previously addressed here and here, is no longer a top-flight outfielder. He has been bugged by injuries and it's difficult for me to imagine him suddenly finding his health. However, with that in mind, if you can get him as your number 2 outfielder, I think you're in great shape. In a league where everyone buys into the hype that he's done, you could grab him a little late. The guy still hits clean-up in one of the top lineups in baseball, remember, and he's been one of baseball's better hitters for a long time.

Papelbon is an outstanding closer. Okajima behind him is a nice guy to have because he'll provide you some great stats, and you never know what can happen (blasphemy, I know). 

I tend to side with Zach, who says that Beckett is a tad overrated. He deserves the huge reputation he gets from pitching well in the playoffs, but remember that fantasy is about regular season performance. He's only a year removed from a 5.01 ERA and I personally am going to let someone else take him too early.

As far as the lineup goes, everyone has the potential to be great. David Ortiz is just a reliable power hitter that won't kill your average - in fact, he hit .332 last season, which would be a great help to any team. Youkilis will also get on base but won't give you the power you need from your 1B spot, so avoid him unless you're getting a lot of power at other positions. Ellsbury was called a potential "poor man's Grady Sizemore" in one analysis I've read; I like him but be wary of hype taking a player too far. Finally, I expect Mike Lowell and JD Drew to both have bounce-back years. Lowell will bounce back closer to earth, while Drew should improve on his ridiculously low numbers from last year. 

Probably the biggest thing to remember with the Red Sox - or any team - is that when you draft a player outside of the first five spots, you're drafting him to perform at that level or better. It doesn't make sense to grab Ellsbury five picks after Sizemore, because if he has the best season possible, he'll only be fulfilling expectations. Look for guys who can be expected to perform at or above the level at which you draft them and you'll be building a solid team with nowhere to go but up.

Toronto Blue Jays

Previous Team Analyses: TB

Hey all, time to continue up the rungs in the AL Beast. Toronto, apparently, is Canadian for "Disabled List," because most of the roster spent time on the DL last season. How different players recover from their injuries will determine the team's fate. 

Lineup

• SS David Eckstein
• 1B Lyle Overbay
• RF Alex Rios
• DH Frank Thomas
• CF Vernon Wells
• 3B Scott Rolen
• 2B Aaron Hill
• C Gregg Zaun
• LF Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs

Rotation

• Roy Halladay
• AJ Burnett
• Dustin McGowan
• Shaun Marcum
• Jesse Litch

Closer  Jeremy Accardo/BJ Ryan

Thoughts...

First and foremost, avoid Toronto closers like the plague. Generally only half of the closers at the start of the season are closing at year's end, and Ryan's return from Tommy John surgery at some point this year guarantees this will be the case for Toronto. You could blow a roster spot trying to get Accardo and Ryan in a draft, but even that doesn't seem worthwhile to me. Ryan will be coming back from surgery, and very few pitchers have any success in their first year back. Wait until 2009.

Alex Rios is an outstanding outfielder, and he's probably still low enough on the radar that he could be your number 2. The biggest problem for him is that the Blue Jays rarely, if ever, steal bases, so his potential to go 20/20 or better is wasted by his team's conservative play on the basepaths. CBS likes him to go .300/30/100/100/20, which isn't out of the question and really is a great statline. Don't draft him too high expecting these numbers, of course, but know that they could be on the horizon.

Trading Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus might've been big news five years ago, but not today. Rolen will most likely get hurt again, but even if he's healthy, he's not going to be clubbing 30 HRs ever again. Third is too deep a position to worry about this aging veteran.

Aaron Hill is an interesting guy. He's getting some hype as a good pick at second base, and he definitely has the potential to build on 17 HR last year. He's one of the few Jays not coming off an injury, too, which definitely makes him valuable.

Will the real Vernon Wells please stand up? Two years ago he was a fantasy force, producing in every category, and last year he tanked. Hopefully the shoulder injury accounts for the drop-off. Of course, as is always the case, the real Wells is somewhere in between his career highs and lows. He belongs in the third tier, but in my opinion, you're more likely to get a big bounceback from Andruw Jones or Jason Bay than Wells.

Roy Halladay is still an excellent pitcher, baseball-wise and fantasy-wise. The improved Jays' infield defense can only help him. He's not a 200 strikeout guy by any stretch, but he has the potential for a WHIP in the 1.10 range, which is fantastic over a full season. Dustin McGowan also had a phenomenal second half of last season. If you put his numbers over a whole season, they look fantastic. If he's available and you're looking for a 3 or 4, grab him.

Overall, injuries are still a concern. If the infielders get injured and the defense slips, that goes back to guys like Halladay and McGowan, even if both are perfectly healthy. If Frank Thomas finally goes down, the whole lineup gets a little weaker, with Rios being the most obvious victim after losing his protection. Keep injuries to everyone on the diamond in mind when looking to draft any Jays this season.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

Ah, arguably the worst team in baseball over the last several seasons. Fortunately, that's far from the truth when it comes to fantasy value, as the Rays have a formidable offense to pair with an improving pitching core. Unfortunately, they pair both of these with a small market team in the AL East.

Lineup

• 2B Akinori Iwamura
  
• LF Carl Crawford
  
• 1B Carlos Pena
  
• CF B.J. Upton
  
• RF Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli
  
• 3B Evan Longoria
  
• DH Johnny Gomes
  
• C Dioner Navarro
  
• SS Jason Barlett

Rotation

• Scott Kazmir
  
• James Shields
  
• Matt Garza
  
• Edwin Jackson
  
• Andy Sonnanstine

Closer Troy Percival

Thoughts...

B.J. Upton isn't the only second-base eligible Rays player worth taking. Iwamura was a force in Japan, and while his number during his first season in the U.S. were weak, any improvement would warrant a roster spot at 2B. Monitor his performance, and if you miss out on the first couple tiers of 2B consider the import.

Replacing Upton at 3B is Evan Longoria, a third overall pick only two seasons ago. He has more upside than players such as Mike Lowell, and due to the poor rookie campaign of overhyped Alex Gordon a lot of drafters are shying away. If a rookie third basemen can put up Ryan Braun numbers, taking a late round flyer on the guy is worth the minor risk.

Upton and Crawford are studs. But the real question is whether Pena will put up numbers like he did last year, hitting for the second most HRs in the American League. My guess is that he won't, but 30-35 with a low BA isn't bad for a utility spot. Just don't depend on him to put up fantasy-league average first base stats.

Rocco Baldelli may have become such an injury risk that he's actually worth drafting as a late round flyer. The kid ran circles around his competition in the minor leagues, but can never seem to stay healthy. I think he could put up 400 ABs this year despite the platoon, and get double digit homers and steals. I don't think he'll get anywhere near 20-20 though.

The pitching is talented, but faces more talented lineups. First things first, the closer(s) of Percival and Reyes are some of the worst closers to take, playing for a bad team and on a short leash. I'm a big fan of Kazmir for strikeouts, but he's starting to show a tendency to start the season off slowly, making him a better trade-target than draft-target. Shields and Garza put up similar peripherals outside of WHIP, and this is why Shields is the guy to target. If your league doesn't take him in the mid-rounds, grab him. He's a very good number three fantasy starter.