The Injured

About a week ago, Pete posted an interesting thread about what it takes for a player to acquire the title "oft-injured". With several first round players down with injuries, its worth exploring who is worth trading and who is worth holding, because even an injured player with potential (ex. Pedro Martinez last year) is valuable trade bait. So who has gone down so far?

Alfonso Soriano: You all know my infatuation with the slugger, but I'm hesitant to write off this injury. While it isn't as severe as last year's quad injury, his legs getting banged up really diminish his value. While 35-20 is still a real possibility, it will come with a .280-.290 average, and guys like Alex Rios or Carlos Lee should improve on those numbers. The fact is, if someone still sees Soriano as a significant upgrade to guys you expect to go 30-20, you should cash in on the profits they'll throw in for the switch.

Jimmy Rollins: I maintained the the Phillies speedster was overrated this season, and while he was performing decently before the injury the slight break in his ankle will really hurt him. I'm a fan of Furcal and think that he's solid fifth round talent that went later, so if you can trade Rollins for Furcal and a significant upgrade elsewhere, consider it. Beyond runs, both players should hit around .300 with 15-20 HRs and 30+ steals.

Howie Kendrick: I'm cynical here, because Kendrick was overrated except for the notes from his coaches that they'd let him steal upwards of 30 bags. With a hamstring injury, that number is way lower, and he's no better than Aaron Hill going forward.

Alex Rodriguez: He's not on the DL, but A-Rod has been missing games and there is speculation he could miss more. Don't be concerned though, as last years MVP should be able to return to form. I'm reminded of Pujols injury a couple years back, where he left as the best player, then came back a couple weeks later and ripped the ball.

Erik Bedard: After the move to Safeco, Bedard should have provided Webb and Beckett type value, but so far hasn't lived up to those expectations (nor has Beckett, ironically). I think that he is one of those "oft-injured" guys, and drafted him on the premise that his rest toward the end of last season should limit him to only one DL stint. I expect more to come, but when he's healthy he should still be a good pitcher who just experienced a slow start.

John Lackey: All signs point to go on Lackey, and with the Angels starting to hit the ball he could be a legitimate ace on return. If he was drafted as a team's second pitcher, you might be able to grab him while he's still relatively cheap. Try to.

Scott Kazmir: I'm not looking forward to Kazmir's first return back against Boston, but after that he should better adjust to major league games. His rehab has gone smoothly, and I have a lot of confidence that he will come back and pitch well. 

So there are the guys that could make big impacts on their returns. Does anyone have any others that they think need mentioned?

Outdated Beliefs

I'm a pretty big fan of streaming pitchers, even though I'm generally a purist when it comes to fantasy strategy (basic 9 man lineup, among other details). As important as the pitcher you are planning to plug for a game is the team they are playing against, and this year there seems to be some confusion among which teams to target. To put it simply, Pittsburgh has had one of the more potent offenses while Detroit has had the worst, so we are looking at some identity crises to say the least. So which beliefs about last years struggles are outdated...

Washington: Last year the Nats had the least scoring offense, putting up just over four runs a game. However, as the outfield becomes healthy, that offense shouldn't be targeted. With a developing Lastings Milledge and Ryan Zimmerman, combined with Nick Johnson and eventually Wily Mo Pena and Elijah Dukes, the offense should have some pop. Proceed with caution.

San Francisco: So far I have streamed three pitchers against this measly offense, and would recommend doing the same. I'm a huge advocate of making moves you won't regret, and if Bengie Molina and Aaron Roward somehow put up a big game, you can't blame yourself for trying. This is especially useful in home games or at LA or SD, where the parks are spacious.

Chicago, Kansas City, and Arizona: These were the next three worst offenses after the Nats and Giants, and none of them should be depended on as an easy matchup. While I expect the offenses to be inconsistent, Nick Swisher + Orlando Cabrera, Alex Gordon + Billy Butler, and Chris B. Young + Conor Jackson spell either new or developing talent that have improved their teams lineup.

So who should you target..(other than San Fran)?

Baltimore and Oakland: Even better than these teams firesale lineups is the fact that, with the exception of Rich Harden for the time being, they don't have a great pitcher either, so you can look forward to a likely win from your starter in addition to good peripherals. Games at Oakland or away from Baltimore are your best bets.

Pittsburgh, Florida, but not Tampa Bay: These are your standard small market teams, so they offer good looks, as long as its not the Rays. With a young and talented lineup, the Devil Rays are expected to be a surprise team this year and should be treated as such. Don't fall into the trap of an outdated belief.

Seattle, Colorado, Minnesota, San Diego, and St. Louis: I wouldn't fully recommend these matchups, but if you really need a spot start and no free agents has a particularly good history, these are okay risks. Colorado away from home struggles as much as some of the aforementioned teams, while St. Louis, Seattle and Minnesota seem to either click or fail miserably. San Diego at home is a huge pitcher's park and is a decent matchup, though Kouzmanoff and Gonzalez should improve this year. In a close matchup you could pick these guys up, and hope your opponent follows suit with a less preferably choice (then consider just dropping your risk if your opponents is higher).

So there are some recommendations for streaming. I didn't include Houston, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia because, while they are strikeout prone, they are also homerun prone. However, at a pitcher's park and in a tight strikeout matchup, you could consider them. So good luck "cheating" the best you can, and don't be the team to play a pitcher against the Tigers once they get on track for that 1,000 run prediction.

Sell Low / Sell High

We all know the strategy of buying a player at his low points and selling others when they are overperforming, but I would opine that this works particularly well early in the season. While most experts recommend holding your "cards" until at least May, the impatient league mate is likely to be jumpy. Struggles across a team are exaggerated, successes across a team are short lived, so every person in the league is hesitant about their position. Even moreso, player struggles are exaggerated (look at Alfonso Soriano's .094 BA and tell me that will last--we've talked about him to much to devote a full section to him). Anyway, here are the player's I think you should ditch, and the ones you should grab...

Sell High: Jermaine Dye, Rich Harden, Chipper Jones, Torii Hunter, Ben Sheets, George Sherrill

This group is dominated by injury risks, but you should try to convince anyone looking for that "ace" pitcher that this is the year of Ben Sheets/Rich Harden. A team that's desperate for pitching might think that its a risk they have no choice to take, and you could get one of the struggling players below. Remember, they are probably banking on any struggling pitching to return, so an pitching-for-offense or vice versa is your best bet. Sherrill is leading the majors in saves, leading to one of three possibilities: The O's continue to win (Editor's Comment: This is sarcastic), Sherrill falls back to earth, or Sherrill is traded to be a setup man midseason. Finally, I think Dye and the White Sox will struggle with age and Hunter coming off a big season will hover around his career average, not where he is now.

Buy Low: Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jeff Francis, Matt Kemp, John Maine, Russell Martin, Aramis Ramirez, Hunter Pence, C.C. Sabathia, B.J. Upton, Justin Verlander + Tigers Offense

You might be able to get any of these outfielders from a team that has a "bigger named" outfielder than the one you seek, since they will believe they can weather the storm. Fantasy players are prone to look at pitching and an outfield core as if it is centered around one guy, making the others undervalued. Crawford is underperforming, Dunn hasn't hit a home run, and Kemp isn't even playing (yet). Sabathia, Verlander, and Maine are in similar situations--target them if their team has another "ace". Also, anyone on in the Tigers offense is worth trading for, but the condition is so exaggerated that I expect even the fleetfooted league mate won't believe in it.

The Walk Years, Part Three

Time for me to finish of my series of walk year players. These are five more guys (end of the alphabet, middle of the draft) that I think could be impact guys, because they have talent, a track record of production, and the added incentive of a big payday as a reward for a successful season.

John Lackey, P, Los Angeles Angels: I really don't like that he started this year with an injury, because I had him pegged early for a good season and arm injuries to pitchers scare me. Nonetheless, I could still see him putting up Cy Young quality numbers when he returns. Last year's numbers of 3.01 and 1.21 are duplicable, in my opinion, and I'd waive my usual avoidance of injured pitchers to pick him up if I had the chance.

Brad Penny, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: Everyone in the fantasy world dislikes Brad Penny, because they know he's a different pitcher after the All-Star Break than before. I'm going to run against the grain, though, because he ended 2007 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.31. He falls so far in drafts, it's unbelievable, and his owners will often trade him for nothing in June. At age 29, he's looking for the big payday, and I expect him to put up a full season of big numbers. Grab him for nothing at midseason if he isn't readily available now.

Oliver Perez, P, New York Mets: You couldn't ask for a much better situation than to be pitching in New York at age 27 with the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes supporting you. Perez has all the ingredients for success: youth (but not immaturity any longer), a talented supporting cast, and the extra motivation of a big contract year. Remember that 2.98 ERA he had in Pittsburgh in 2004? As a loyal Pirates fan, I do, and I see it as a reasonable ceiling for 2008. I don't know if he'll get to 1.15 WHIP or 239 K's, but those are very possible. The ceiling is as high as ever for Perez in his walk year.

Mark Prior, P, San Diego Padres: I know... another injured pitcher... but I can't resist his talent. He'll be off the 60-day DL on June 1, and all indications are he'll be ready to pitch. The reason he was a consensus first overall draft pick (even though he went second to Joe Mauer) and jumped almost immediately into the bigs is that he has amazing talent throwing a baseball. Prior is on a $1 million, incentive-laden deal, with the added incentive of a potential big payday for a healthy and effective season. He's a low-risk pickup who could provide massive rewards (don't forget that as a bonus, he's in the pitcher's haven of Petco Park). If you have the spot, stash the 27-year-old former phenom. You could do much worse.

Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit Tigers: In this very forum, Renteria has been called overrated, but I can't write him off. I remember how much he struggled with Boston in 2005, but I don't see a repeat in Detroit this year. He's hitting leadoff as long as Curtis Granderson is out, which is only an extra opportunity to accumulate some runs. If he moves down in the lineup later, he'll pick up extra RBI opportunities - I see the lineup movement as an extra chance to balance his stats. I'm not saying the 32 year-old will carry your team, but I love having him if you can't nail one of the Big Three.

Well, that's my list of my favorite names heading into 2008. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. Remember that this isn't a foolproof strategy, but to me it's a consistent indicator of who is likely to overachieve. Check back at season's end to see how I did. 

The Walk Years, Part Two

Early in March, I posted about my favorite topic: players in walk years. Year in and year out, players with the big money contracts on the table seem to outperform every projection. Although this is not a foolproof formula (Andruw Jones, despite being a walk years, was awful last year), it is in my opinion a very consistent measure of guys to target. Here are five more players in walk years that I think could be big surprises in 2008:

Bobby Abreu, RF, New York Yankees: Abreu has been one of baseball's most consistent outfielders over the past ten years, producing in all five categories and playing outstanding defense. This spring, he's been hitting the ball at a .462 clip - you think he's ready for his last payday at age 34? I certainly do. 100/100 are minimums, 30 steals is probable, and he ought to keep the batting average close to .300 (Abreu is even more valuable if your league happens to consider OPS). 20 HR may be a stretch these days, but even 15 with his other production makes him a valuable outfielder. He's old but not yet over the hill, and I expect big things from Abreu in 2008.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas Rangers: How does .300/29/90/89 sound from your third base spot? How about .276/32/110/107? How about if you can get these numbers in Round 15? Round 20? Those are Blalock's lines from 2003 and 2004, before he was bit by the injury bug. He's a 27 year old free-agent to be with a ton of upside in 2008. Things to like: He's batting cleanup behind Michael Young and Josh Hamilton. He's been so hot this spring, hitting .377 and mashing the ball. His home park is the Ballpark at Arlington, a notorious hitter's paradise. He can be had in drafts for dirt cheap right now. I know injury risks aren't always the best options, but I like Blalock to enter the prime of his career looking to get paid. CBS says .300/30/100/100 is a possibility - I think that's a stretch but maybe not a huge one. If you're busy grabbing middle infielders or outfielders early on, take a flier on Blalock late and you could be handsomely rewarded. 

Adam Dunn, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He may not be having the monster spring of the previous two players, but Dunn is a free-agent-to-be with plenty of upside. He has mashed 40 HR exactly in three straight years, which has ensured him 100/100 numbers. It's difficult to find clocks that consistent. He also managed a bonus 9 SBs last season. In his walk year (age 28), I think it's reasonable to expect him to produce at his 2004 pace: .266/46/102/105/6. The Reds have been working with him on cutting down on the strikeouts, and I think the batting average will be no problem for his value this year. I like to target him as a solid source of power with a high ceiling heading into 2008. 

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Here is one of Zach's favorite players, and I can't disagree. In 16 spring games, he has hit .327 with 11 runs, 5 triples, 11 RBI and two steals. He's no longer plagued of the ankle injury that robbed him of his speed in 2007, and he's free to hit at the top of a fairly potent Dodger batting order. I expect him to be circling the basepaths consistently, to the tune of an easy 40 steals. Hopefully he can add the pop that will make him a very valuable fantasy commodity this year.

Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Los Angeles Angels: Big Vlad has been one of my favorite baseball players to watch for many years, because he's never afraid to hit any pitch coming his way. He's been consistently good at hitting both good pitches and bad, too, even without any protection in the lineup. My expectations for him this season: with the plethora of outfielders, he should get enough random days off so that his nagging elbow and knee problems will not flare up. He's a four category producer now - he won't give you any steals anymore, but .330/30/125/100 could very well happen. He's been good for a long time and there's no question in my mind he'll be keeping it up throughout 2008.

To update my previous post: Joe Nathan was signed to a four-year deal. This takes him out of the walk year formula but to me increases his value, because it ensures that he will close for the entire season (barring injury). It also increases K-Rod's value slightly, because the market has been set for him. He is younger than Nathan and will look to get more dollars than him this off-season. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. I'll have five more names I'd like to discuss later in the week, so be sure to check back. It's probably too late to draft these guys, but look to trade for them in your early season maneuvering.

The Walk Years: Studs

My personal favorite sign that a player is primed for a breakout season is the length of his contract. Players in the final year of their deals, or those who can opt out at the end of the season, consistently outperform their career averages and season projections, as well as their peers. There are notable exceptions - Andruw Jones struggled mightily last season despite pending free agency, for example - but for the most part, it's a great indicator (A-Rod was in a walk year last year, and look what happened!). Here are five fantasy studs in walk years.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Fantasy baseball experts across the board love Big Tex, and keep waiting for him to vault himself into the truly elite at first base. Is this the year? I certainly think so. He's in the middle of a good lineup (Chipper Jones bats ahead of him, while Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann provide protection behind) and playing his first full season in Atlanta. Teixeira is 28 years old, about to enter his prime and ready to sign that long-term deal at season's end. He'll give you good four-category production in any season, but I think the Fangraphs projections of .291/34/108/105 are awfully conservative. I don't think it's a stretch for him to get the average above .300 and have 40 HR by season's end, and if I'm at the beginning of the draft, I'm absolutely looking to pick him up toward the end of Round 2.

Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Tampa Bay is down there with Pittsburgh and Kansas City in cities of baseball purgatory, and Carl Crawford definitely wants out. Fangraphs projects him to hit over .300 with 45 steals, but I say in a walk year he does one better. At 26 years old, Crawford is in his baseball prime, and still looking to mature and hit for a little more power. The unfortunate thing for Crawford is that he hits in a mediocre lineup and has nobody in front of him to consistently drive in. Nonetheless, with Pena and Upton behind him, he'll get plenty of chances to circle the bases. Also, players in walk years on bad teams often get traded - if Tampa is struggling, they may look to move Crawford for prospects, knowing he will leave for nothing at season's end. Someone with his speed and talent could top many lineups and be extremely productive. I look for Crawford, in his walk year, to step up big time and ensure that he gets out of Tampa Bay as quickly as possible.

CC Sabathia, SP, Cleveland Indians: C.C. has been watching starting pitchers sign big contracts over the past two years and is definitely ready to cash in. He can and will use the Johan Santana deal with the New York Mets as a benchmark for his , and has every right to do so. He has maintained an ERA around 3.20 the past two seasons, in a very difficult division, and I look for him to maintain that or possibly improve it this season (despite consistent projections to the contrary). Another 200 strikeout season is also possible for the big horse. He'd love to stay in Cleveland but he closed negotiations and can't be happy that his deal isn't done. The biggest risk with CC is that he threw 241 innings last season; however, Cleveland is keeping his work between starts down to compensate. I don't consider the big fella a huge injury risk as far as pitchers go, and would definitely love to have him anchoring my staff in 2008.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Los Angeles Angels: K-Rod has been an integral part of the Anaheim bullpen since their magical World Series run in 2002, when he was the primary set-up man in the playoffs despite a total of five big league innings on his resume. At age 26, he is ready to be paid with the long-term deal he feels he deserves. Additionally, Rodriguez is pitching with a major chip on his shoulder because of the way he struggled at the end of last season (his ERA and WHIP after the All-Star Break: 3.45 and 1.33). These numbers all combine to indicate a man on a mission, and a man I'd love to have on my fantasy team. Conservative projections have his strikeout totals in the 80s, but I see 100 as a very reachable ceiling. Add that to 40-45 saves and you've got a fantastic closer for any fantasy team.

Joe Nathan, RP, Minnesota Twins: Lost amongst the chaos in Minnesota with the departures of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana was Joe Nathan, the elite closer who will be a free agent at the end of the 2008 season. Nathan was one of Minnesota's prospects acquired the last time they were exiling veterans (Nathan was traded from San Francisco in the AJ Pierzynski deal, along with Francisco Liriano - think about that one for a few minutes). In four seasons closing games in Minnesota, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.02 (last year) and in three of the four, his ERA has been under 2.00. Conservative projections put his WHIP where it was last season - just above 1.00 - but I say in a contract season he ends up closer to his 2006 mark of 0.79. Nathan doesn't blow many chances; he's a quality pitcher. His team isn't going to be winning a lot of blowouts, meaning he'll have plenty of save opportunities. It's possible he'll be moved in mid-season, but regardless, he will be one of fantasy's top closers again in 2008. 

These are my five favorite studs to break out, but studs aren't the only players whose statistics improve in contract years. Check back in the future for profiles of mid-round players and sleepers in walk years. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. Keep in mind that although players such as John Smoltz and Greg Maddux are on one-year deals, they don't fall into the category of "walk-year" players looking to cash in on a productive season with a long-term contract. Watch this list carefully, because it contains the Torii Hunters and A-Rods of 2008, guys who will exceed projections and carry your team to fantasy championships.

The Fallen

For the past week or so, I've been running a poll about which early round selection is undervalued. As of tonight, Pujols and Soriano are tied, with Santana and Utley coming in second and Howard a good deal behind. Before revealing my selection, I'd like to consider what I believe are strong arguments for or against a certain player.

Chase Utley (ADP 8) - Utley is best second basemen available; some consider him miles and above guys like B.J. Upton and Brandon Phillips. Despite a shortened season, Utley put up top tier numbers last year in Philadelphia. If you haven't noticed, that entailed a stacked offense and an attractive hitters park going into 2008.

• For: Utley is going after guys like Miguel Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holliday. In a twelve team league, fifth pick will see plenty of outfielders with their second pick, and Aramis Ramirez will be available in the third or Atkins in the fourth. Smaller leagues probably undervalue the perennial All-Star, since filling in spots later is easy.
  
• Against: Even in deep leagues, Brandon Phillips or B.J. Upton should be there for your second pick. If you take Holliday, you could have Holliday + Phillips, rather than Utley + Beltran/Lee/Guerrero. In my opinion, the former is a better duo. Miguel on the other hand, should be going after Utley. Rollins and Utley is a toss up as far as I'm concerned.

Albert Pujols (ADP 9) - We all know that not taking Pujols could burn us, but most of us know that taking him could be worse. The damage to the first basemen's elbow will require surgery at some point, and Pujols explained that he will not play through pain this year. The issue rests on whether or not the Cardinals are contenders or chicken tenders.

• For: He is projected by several reputable statistic sites as the best player going into 2008. Even his line last year (99 runs, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .327 AVG) would warrant a first round selection, and it was considered a bust. In shallow leagues with plenty of decent FA, injuries aren't too costly, and decent fill-ins should emerge mid-season. Just hope on at least 75% of the season.
• Against: First picks must not entail high risk. Passing on Pujols when the decision is tough usually delivers guys like Howard and Fielder. In my opinion, its better to grab any of the guys above him and hope for him, Howard, or Fielder to come back around.

Ryan Howard (ADP 10) - Nothing big here, I agree with you guys. While I think Cabrera is generally overrated and therefore Howard should go before him, I can't warrant the slugger to move ahead of fellow one bagger Pujols or middle infielders Rollins or Utley.

Johan Santana (ADP 12) - Santana, inarguably the best pitcher over the past three years, slowed down a bit compared to his peers last season. Not to worry, as the guy still earned a ridiculous contract and moved to the less formidable NL.

• For: Many of you have pointed this out, but pitchers are underrated in most Roto leagues. Santana is the best of them, and I think he's worth considering as early as the fifth pick. Pete wrote a great article concerning his upside, so I recommend it.
• Against: Chris Carpenter last year. Pitchers carry an injury risk more than position players, so a first round selection of a hurler is unwarranted. Still, Santana has proven his health year in and year out. Taking the new Mets ace gives a lot of flexibility regarding taking your number two and three, as any fantasy staff headed by the Cy Young favorite will be one of the best in the league.

Alfonso Soriano (ADP 15) - Soriano was the consensus second pick last year, but now he's fallen at least a round. His line, like Pujols, was still great and can be considered the basement of this season. If he figures out to hit at Wrigley, he will be great.

• For: For the first time in years, OF seems shallow. Soriano, next to Holliday, reigns over the position. Right now, 3 SS, 3 1B, and 4 3B precede his selection, and this doesn't seem right considering position depth.
• Against: Soriano is hurt, bats in an unproductive leadoff spot, and isn't stealing 40 bases again. However, his quad is fully healed and a non-dislocated hairline fracture of his middle finger is unlikely to heal by the season's start. He went 2-4 today in Spring Training, with no complaints of injuries.

Considering the arguments, I have to give the nod to either Santana or Soriano. I think Santana should be going around pick 6-7 (curiously where he went last year, while still in the AL), which represents a movement of 6 picks. Soriano, on the other hand, should complement of first basemen with the 9th or 10th pick, which is a movement of 6 picks. In a shallow league, all of these guys are underrated since "risk" is overrated.

As a Cubs fan, I give the nod to Soriano. "Hunch prediction" of 40+ HRs and 100 RBIs from the fifth spot in the lineup. 

Spring Training Tales: National League

And on to the other side of the league...

NL East: The Braves centerfield job is supposedly open to competition, but I expect Kotsay gets it as the veteran. Many of the young Marlins' pitchers have shown flashes of brilliance, so Andrew Miller, Scott Olsen, and Anibal Sanchez are worth keeping an eye on as a late round pick. Washington has a plethora of talent in their outfield, though I fully expect Mo Pena, Milledge, and Kearns to hold their own (So Elijah Dukes will have to wait a bit). This, in turn, could cause a conflict at first between Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson, though neither will provide a whole lot of value.

• NL Central: Chicago has four 5th starts to fill in the 4th and 5th spots. It looks like Marquis might be involved in the Roberts deal, but if not its likely he gets a spot. Also, Lieber was all but guaranteed a spot when he signed with the Cubs. The only guy worth considering come draft day is Marshall, but only if he gets a spot. The Cubs closer role is complicated since Marmol is the only one pitching well, but originally stood as the least likely to close. I still think he pitchers the eighth and Howry eventually loses the job to Kerry Wood. Votto vs. Hatteberg is a big deal, as Votto could be a great 1B or utility if he's the every day first basemen. The Reds signed Corey Patterson, so it looks like Bruce is stuck in the minors until at least the trade deadline. If you are from Pittsburgh, hope that Nady gets traded so Stephen Pearce can get a shot in the outfield--he could be a decent fourth outfielder in a deeper league. Cardinal outfield duties are a confusion, so keep an eye on Rusmus since he could provide good balance. Also, listen for reports on Pujols, who is doing fine so far. Finally, Manny Parra, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush are all competing for spots in the Brewers rotation and could all be relevant. If Capuano shows he's still got something in him, he's worth drafting. Parra, if given a shot, could be almost as good as Gallardo.

NL West: The Dodgers need to get rid of Pierre, but instead Ethier is lost unless he forces the Dodgers' hand and puts up great Spring Training stats. Andy Laroche vs. Nomar Garciaparra is worth paying attention to, but I think Torre will push for the veteran. Finally, Jason Schmidt was an All-Star pitcher, and on an offensively and defensively improved Dodgers team could be worth drafting if he looks healthy. Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley could be decent if they earn a spot, though I think only Headley has a good shot at this. Finally, Micah Owings has been trying out DH duties, which is mostly just funny. How would Yahoo! handle that kind of position eligibility?

So there is the rundown. Feel free to tell me if I missed anything, but hopefully this will help deter you from wasting time checking out boxscores of Toronto vs. Colorado and such, where not much is likely to change. 

Spring Training Tales: American League

Those of you not graced with the gift of StatTracker know the adrenaline rush that comes with checking out box scores. However, the importance of these reports its a lot different during Spring Training than the actual season, since performance doesn't always (or even often) translate to the bigs.

However, what is important are position battles and injuries. Many sites offer a more comprehensive list, but most players competing for a spot are not going to offer relevant fantasy production, at least this year. Here are the things worth keeping up with...

AL East: Bucholz vs. Lester would have been interesting, but Schilling going down gives each a roster spot. The Yankees have a logjam at first base, and Shelley Duncan has started strong this offseason. Between him, Betemit, and Ensberg, you are choosing your vice, but as Pete mentioned in his team report, any Yankee is worth following. The Orioles closing job will likely go to Sherrill, so the only thing worth paying attention to is the performance of star-prospect Adam Jones, who hit his first HR with the O's yesterday. The Rays final rotation spots are interesting, but none of the guys should be big impact players this year and it isn't worth the headache. However, Longoria is worth watching--he's had two impact extra-base hits already and could provide 25 HR if he gets the starting gig.

• AL Central: 2006 Fantasy Ace Jeremy Bonderman is coming off a bad season, but if he starts strong (3 scoreless innings yesterday) he could be a bargain on draft day. Carlos Gomez could be a sleeper pick for steals, as Jose Reyes himself proclaimed the prospect is faster than he is. If the Twins offense turns the corner this year he could be as good as Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras, or Juan Pierre. Joe Crede is most definitely getting traded, though Josh Fields is still worth monitoring if you are waivering on your opinion of him.

AL West: The Angels have some competition at SS, with Brandon Wood and Eric Aybar competing for the job. Wood could come with upside as a sleeper in deeper leagues if he looks good this spring. Guerrero's health is also worth paying attention to, as is Ervin Santana's ability to fill in for Escobar. Seattle's prospect to watch is Wladimir Balentien, if only because his name is so fun to try to pronounce. Oakland position battles are somewhat intriguing, as Daric Barton could provide some value at first if he starts strong. 

MLB.com provides boxscores of all Cactus League and Grapefruit League play, and I will praise whichever blogger can explain why the leagues are called such. Also, Fangraphs provides cumulative statistics over the course of the preseason.

Seven Swingin' Septembers

I wanted to look at a few players who had great Septembers in 2007. While having a great September doesn't guarantee a great following season, it is something to consider with young players in particular who may have found their stride after a slow season.

Alfonso Soriano: For the life of me, I can't figure out why some experts are down on this guy. Granted, forty steals isn't likely to happen ever again, but a healthy season at Wrigley has got to do some good. He should be going very early in the second-round, though I would probably take him toward the end of the first since he and Holliday are a tier of their own.

• .320 AVG, 14 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB

Ryan Braun: I wasn't hot on this guy when he was going at the very beginning of the second round, but if he's there any later, bite. While third base is deep this year, Braun will gain OF elibility and one could make a case that he's better than Sizemore, Beltran, or Guerrero.

• .308 AVG, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Curtis Granderson: This guy needs a bit more respect. Leading off the Tigers lineup, Granderson is looking for another 120+ run season. He stole 26 of 27 attempts, and with 23 HR and at age 26 he has some pop to his swing. I like him more than Rios.

• .348 AVG, 5 HR, 9 SB

Garrett Atkins: Atkins has made good use of his prime years, putting up great numbers but paling in comparison to the Wright's and A-Rod's out there. Last September he was a big part of the Rockies surge, and the following statline is impressive.

• .390 AVG, 5 HR, OPS of 1.010

Matt Kemp: Look at Kemp's profile picture on Yahoo! and you'll want him on your team. He looks like he'd take you to a bar and help bring back the ladies (that, if you weren't preoccupied with fantasy baseball, would be no challenge I'm sure). Despite the hype, he's still underrated come draft day and is a great 3rd OF.

• .383 AVG, OPS of .930, the power and speed will come this year

James Loney: Loney enters his second full season without concern of losing his spot to anyone. While a lot of experts think his power last season was a fluke, I'm not advertising a 30 HR threat. But what I do think is a mid-20's HR guy with a great average and good run and RBI contributions.

• .382 AVG, 9 HR, 32 RBI

Hank Blalock: Blalock has struggled with injuries for the past couple years but finally appeared healthy at the end of last season. He is going late in a lot of drafts, lasting seemingly forever in the Sports Blogger League. And he sported a mean September.

• .313 AVG, 5 HR, OPS of 1.063

This is by no means an all-inclusive list. It does show you some guys who seemed to perform either above their limits or at a limit we just hadn't seen before. All of the later guys are going a bit later though in my opinion.

Sleepers: The Hurlers

There can be a lot of benefits to waiting awhile to grab starting pitching, and while I like to draft at least one true ace, knowing your sleepers can lead to strong middle rounds. The following pitchers are going undrafted and I feel have the chance to produce 5th or 6th starter numbers by fantasy standards.

5th Starter potential: Randy Johnson (217), Zach Greinke (233), Jon Lester (241), Hiroki Kuroda (262), John Garland (304), Shawn Hill (316)

6th Starter potential: Matt Garza (229), Gil Meche (234), Tom Glavine (247), Greg Maddux (282), Micah Owings (335), Ervin Santana (344), Mike Mussina (375)

• There's not that much difference between 5th and 6th Starter potential, and I would say both are only a fraction above marginal level. To use terminology brandished on the site, these are all on the same tier, as neither is significantly different by quantum baseball mechanics.

Relief Pitchers: Jonathan Broxton (218), George Sherrill (222), Hideki Okajima (240), Rafael Betancourt (267), Pat Neshek (277), Kerry Wood (283)

• These guys should all be owned heading into next season. Broxton and Okajima normally grab a handful of saves even if their team's closer stays healthy, though I consider both closers injury risks. Sherrill is his teams closer, and should be drafted. Betancourt and Wood will probably win a closing job at some point, while Neshek will be great after (spoiler alert) the Twins trade Nathan at the deadline.

Sleepers: The Swingers

Sleepers can mean several things, and I usually define it as players being taken much too late by my projections. However, for the purposes of this blog, I'm going to look at those players being taken outside of the first 210 picks, which for a 10-team Yahoo! or ESPN league means going undrafted, and for a 12 team, 23 roster league (276 picks) is pretty much the bench picks and free agency. So, starting with position players, I'll look at batters who I expect to have an impact on someone's roster come 2008...

Catchers: Justin Towles (ADP 215)

• This one is easy. Towles is going undrafted, while we have him as the ninth best catcher available. Even if he goes .280, 10, 10, it's better than most catchers. No one depends on the position for power, so that kind of balance the decent average that is expected make him a distinguished sleeper heading into next season.

First Base: Joey Votto (247), Casey Kotchman (272), Conor Jackson (280)

• Votto is another guy that could grab you steals from an unlikely position, did very well in limited time last year, and plays at a friendly park. Kotchman and Jackson are playing for established offenses that are looking to improve heading into next year. All three should be considered serviceable utility/DH guys.

Second Base: Freddy Sanchez (267)

• Sanchez is two years removed from a batting title, and while I wouldn't expect such heights, he's nearly as good as the other second basemen being drafted late. Still, unless he shows a promising April, he's at best a backup to someone like Aaron Hill or Dustin Pedroia

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (226)

• Lugo is looking to lead off, if he can hold off Jacoby Ellsbury, for one of the best offenses in the majors. His batting average before the break was abysmal, but he batted a more than respectable .280 after the Summer Classic. 8 HRs and 33 steals from a guy batting around .270 and .280 is a steal (no pun intended). Except for last year, Lugo has never batted for less than .275 while playing for an American League team (all AL East mind you... TB 2003-2006)

Third Base: Hank Blalock (216), Evan Longoria (232), Kevin Kouzmanoff (235)

• Blalock showed game after returning from surgery last season. Longoria could be the next Ryan Braun, and with nowhere near the investment it took to get Alex Gordon last year. Kouzmanoff is rarely drafted, but with double digit homeruns after the break (11 Post-All Star, 18 total, 13 away from Petco) he could provide an interesting "fantasy platoon" to play in away games.

Outfield: J.D. Drew (242), Rick Ankiel (248), Nate McClouth (249), Lastings Milledge (297), Wily Mo Pena (299), Luke Scott (343), Felix Pie (368)

• Drew is a decent 3rd outfielder who is getting no respect. He could easily bat for 20+ HRs if he stays healthy; if he doesn't, the rest of these guys should be in that free agency.
• Players I think have a chance to hit 25+ HRs (in order of confidence): Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Wily Mo Pena
• Players I think have a chance to steal 25 bags without compromising other categories: Felix Pie, Nate McClouth
• Lastings Milledge has been projected by some sources to go 20-20. I think 15-15 is more likely, but on an improved Nationals lineup he's worth a look.