Midseason Position Rankings: Third Base

Well, we are almost at the conclusion of our Midseason Position Rankings, and so far it's been an interesting journey. Things change quickly, and one of those is the recent force the Ortiz has been in the minors, suggesting a quick ascent through that second tier. But right now I want to focus on the hot corner, which has delivered many a success story this season. Onward!

Tier One:

• Alex Rodriguez
• David Wright
• Ryan Braun

Yes, A-Rod is still the king of fantasy baseball despite fulfilling that even-year prophecy. In almost 100 fewer at-bats, he's beating Wright in homers and steals, and will soon catch him in runs and ribbies while his average exceeds the face of the Mets. Braun, to me, was a surprise, but watching him play even a few innings proves he is the real deal. If only the Brewers could put men on ahead of him, as 17 of his 23 homers have been solo shots.

Tier Two:

• Aramis Ramirez
• Miguel Cabrera
• Garrett Atkins
• Chipper Jones

Here we have another three-star tier. While I missed on Braun, I was right to assert Ramirez's value would be equal to, or even exceed, Cabrera's. Ramirez is tied for second among hot corners in RBIs, and will score 100 times while driving in 100. Cabrera started slow, but that whole offense has too much talent for him not to succeed. Atkins may come as a bit of a surprise, but given Jones's injury history and the formers post-Break splits (at least .150 higher OPS in each of the past two seasons), I'm expected good things.

Tier Three:

• Mike Lowell
• Evan Longoria

This is the short tier before the fall. These guys have fewer question marks than the remainder of the field, and will help in every category without severely hampering your average. There are question marks about Longoria's stamina, but so far he's been Braun-esque and not Gordon-esque, so a solid second half isn't out of the question.

Tier Four:

• Adrian Beltre
• Troy Glaus
• Alex Gordon
• Joe Crede
• Edwin Encarnacion
• Hank Blalock
• Casey Blake
• Jorge Cantu
• Mark Reynolds

Beltre will receive a boost in value if the rumored trade to the Twins materializes. Glaus has been great this season, and while I think his value will tail off he should still exceed many of his peers. Gordon has a lot of potential, and I will like him heading into any future season more than the bottom tier. Crede, Encarnacion, Blake, and Cantu could all hit double digit (but barely) homers before the season ends, but that average will sit south of .280. And Reynolds average may be even lower, that is if he doesn't lose playing time to Chad Tracy while Tony Clark (or if a corner outfield acquisition leads to Conor Jackson playing a corner infield spot).

Midseason Position Rankings: First Base

This is probably where I will get the most hate mail, but oh well. As far as I'm concerned, first base is first and foremost a power position. Failing to accumulate 30+ bombs can set you back in both HRs and RBIs, and for this reason I tend to value power over well-roundedness. That said, we will start with some overall great players...

Tier One:

• Lance Berkman
• Albert Pujols
• Ryan Howard

I wanted to rank Pujols first, if only to burn all those people who passed on him and reward anyone who took the risk on him in the first round. But Berkman leads Pujols in every offensive category except average, and his additional dozen steals are no small part in the lead. Coupled with the fact that Berkman has hit noticeably better in the second half of the last three seasons (100 points better in OPS in 2007 and 2005, to be exact), and you realize just how good of a season the Astro is having. Pujols will continue to buffer your average and will probably reach around 35 homeruns, but his run and RBI numbers pail in comparison and some regression from Ludwick and Ankiel has to be in the cards. Howard is in a league of his own when it comes to power, and will likely be the only player to exceed 50 HRs on the season. Sure, his average isn't pretty, but as a second half hitter himself I bet he will more than outweigh that deficit.

Tier Two:

• Mark Teixeira
• Prince Fielder
• Derrek Lee
• Adrian Gonzalez
• David Ortiz
• Justin Morneau

Teixeira is such a second half hitter that I will excuse his inferior stats and expect a trade to an AL powerhouse such as Boston or Anaheim. Fielder is the beneficiary of my power-first system, but the Brewers don't put enough batters on base for him to drive in, while Ryan Braun bats .314 with RISP ahead of him. Lee barely gets the nod over Gonzalez; both are set for solid second halves but the Padres are likely going to be sellers, and that offense really can't sustain his current production. Ortiz has some injury concerns but says that he's healthy; just remember how much power he lost last season while playing through injury. Morneau almost misses out based on his poor second half track record and his winning of the home run derby, but the Twins are looking to buy a bat like Adrian Beltre and I like the Twins to improve offensively.

Tier Three:

• Adam LaRoche
• Jason Giambi
• Kevin Youkilis
• Conor Jackson
• Aubrey Huff
• Carlos Pena
• Joey Votto

LaRoche shows ridiculous post Break splits and is already making solid contact with the ball on a resurgent Pirates offense. Giambi has a good shot to hit 35+ homers this season, and the Yankees offense is sure to help those drives count for more than solo shots. Youkilis gets a bad rap for being a first half player, but he's young and should be getting used to a full season. Conor Jackson and Joey Votto are young, and both should bring power and some speed. Votto will benefit from moving up in the lineup once the Reds trade some of their outfield vets. Aubrey Huff is the real sleeper here; he has twelve more homeruns after the All Star Break than before in 300 fewer at-bats.

Tier Four:

• Paul Konerko
• James Loney
• Carlos Delgado
• Mike Jacobs
• Todd Helton
• Casey Kotchman
• Matt Stairs
• Ryan Garko

Konerko and Delgado will have to prove their health to escape this last tier, while Loney and Garko really needs to show some more power to even stay here. Loney never had a minor league track record of power, but the Dodgers will put runners on ahead of him and he'll hit for the best average of the group. Kotchman might get traded in a Teixeira deal; giving him a boost in value. If he doesn't get traded, he will be riding the pine. Matt Stairs is the sleeper of the bench, since he's been connected to Arizona where I think he could post great numbers.

Midseason Position Rankings: Second Base

Now to the other side of the middle infield, and probably my favorite position if only because it is the one I once played. While second base is traditionally considered a weak offensive category, the slot is called home by power hitters Chase Utley and Dan Uggla, along with all-around batters Brandon Phillips and Ian Kinsler alongside speedsters Chone Figgins and B.J. Upton. Because of the relative diversity in speciality, it's tough to rank these guys. Consider this a flexible list, because different guys will have drastically different value based on your team's needs.

Tier One:

• Chase Utley

This one is easy; Utley is in a class of his own. Granted, his numbers have been down in comparison to his hot start, but with his track record and a scary Phillies lineup, Utley blows away the competition. There's really not enough I could say about the slugger, but its worth mentioning while he is a lock for 100 R and 100 RBI, he's got a good shot of 45+ homers and 20+ steals on the season (add to that a BABIP 35 points lower than his career numbers and better isolated power numbers than last season).

Tier Two:

• Brandon Phillips
• Ian Kinsler
• Brian Roberts
• B.J. Upton

If I didn't have FanGraphs.com available, I would be more smitten by this group. In truth, the ordering isn't much better than if I had arbitrarily assembled the tier, but that because all of these batters have BABIPs around .350 except for Brandon Phillips. Phillips will probably get his 100 RBIs but an Adam Dunn trade will cost him a good shot of scoring 100 times himself. Kinsler, already with 82 runs, will easily accomplish that feat, but his average right now is a fluke. If Roberts is traded I would probably place him above Kinsler, provided he stays in the American league and isn't blessed with the rare pitcher on base to drive in. Upton hasn't been great so far, but last season's power must be in there somewhere and he could easily steal fifty bags.

Tier Three:

• Dan Uggla
• Chone Figgins
• Robinson Cano
• Dustin Pedroia

If you can pull it off, trade Uggla for Cano and someone decent, because they could easily put up similar numbers in the second half. I've mentioned Uggla as an overperformer, and a lot of it has to do with his insanely out of whack BABIP and HR/FB. In only his third year, the power could be legitimate, but when half your hits are flyballs the slightest drop in power means a drastic drop in average. Figgins has been a disappointment, but as he distances himself from early season injury his steals should come back. Cano last season sat at .274, 6 HR, 2 SB, but posted a Post All Star of .953 OPS and 13 HR. Again, he is a talent that is just underperforming, but is quickly establishing himself as a second half hitter. Pedroia is a catalyst in one of the best offenses, and once Big Papi returns he should score even more often while batting for a respectable average.

Tier Four:

• Placido Polanco
• Howie Kendrick
• Mark DeRosa
• Kelly Johnson
• Orlando Hudson
• Mark Ellis
• Ty Wigginton
• Alexei Ramirez
• Jose Lopez
• Kazuo Matsui
  
• Clint Barmes
• Ricke Weeks
• Alexi Casilla
• Yunel Escobar

I probably forgot someone, but at this point it really doesn't matter. I'm tempted to finish the list with Eugenio Velez, but he needs more time in the minors. Really, just base your picking from here on team needs, because the only balanced players sit in the top four, and they aren't anything special. I wish I had more faith in Kendrick, but with leg woes his preseason expectations of 30 SBs are a pipe dream. Also, I could have easily forgotten someone, so let me know.

Midseason Position Rankings: Shortstop

Well, I figured I'd post a position ranking now, though they should all be up by the end of next week (since "The Day in Review" won't exist during the All Star Break, which is the greatest advent of all time).. I've had very little luck considering these players, since there are far too many question marks, but I did the best I could and expect an angry poster or two to explain just how wrong I was. In these criticisms, please be as articulate as possible, as to better apprehend my failure and the correct arrangement of the fielding-sixers.

Tier One:

• Hanley Ramirez
• Jose Reyes

I'm not a huge fan of one-player tiers, but these two could just as easily be the entire tier one and the entire tier two. Ramirez boasts fourteen more homers and better stats in every category but steals, where Reyes beats him out 32-22. My issue with Ramirez is that he's shown himself to be streaky, and already sported two such streaks (one recently, one to start the season). I have him pegged for another, though the fish should come back to earth (less runs and RBIs) and I expect his SBs totals to taper off if Florida acquires the quick leadoff batter they've been eyeing (possibly Taveras). Reyes on the other hand should steal bases at a higher rates, and acquiring him now gives you a good shot of moving up several rankings in both the runs and SB categories.

Tier Two:

• Jimmy Rollins

Okay, I broke my word, but do we really expect Rollins to approach the youngsters brilliance? I didn't think so, nor do I personally expect anyone to approach the Phillies shortstop. With twenty fewer games than either, Rollins ties Ramirez in steals. Also, Howard heating up and time since the last injury should lead to better run totals, more hits, and more dingers. He's just not going to catch either in average, Reyes in speed, or Ramirez in power.

Tier Three:

• Michael Young
• Carlos Guillen
• Derek Jeter
• Miguel Tejada

None of these guys are young, and I ranked them in accordance with how I see their offenses performing heading forward. The Rangers will see improvements from Chris Davis (one of my favorite sleepers), and Saltalamacchia, while also sporting a sickening outfield of Hamilton, Bradley, and Murphy. The Tigers have been disappointments, but Guillen could go 20-20, which no one else here will. Jeter and Tejada are not doing great, but their track record helps them escape a lower tier, while the length of that track record places them at the bottom of this list.

Tier Four:

• Ryan Theriot
• J.J. Hardy
• Johnny Peralta
• Orlando Cabrera
• Steven Drew
• Edgar Renteria

Theriot will give you speed, no power, and an average around .275 through the rest of the season (as a Cubs fan, I won't be unrealistic: his .314 average isn't for real (but he will finish the year with 30+ SBs). Hardy is hot, but was once liquid nitrogen cold, and will be closer to the latter at some point. Peralta has the upside to launch 30 homers, while Cabrera could provide a solid balance, but none of these guys will give provide much else.

Tier Five:

• Rafael Furcal
• Khalil Greene
• Ramon Vazquez
• Maicer Izturis
• Julio Lugo
• Yunel Escobar
• Matt Aviles

Furcal will probably miss most of the season, but as a pending FA he might try to prove his health. Greene hasn't really had a hot stretch as should find one, while the rest are options in deep leagues but have little value anywhere else. Christian Guzman should be traded.

Midseason Rankings: Closers

On to the next position, and I'll be honest, this was the most challenging I've drafted so far. Closers so frequently lose their jobs to poor performance or injury that projecting them usually proves impossible; just ask anyone who paid dearly for J.J. Putz. Because this isn't an easy task, please comment where you see fit (last rankings' fifteen posts was a record for our site, but one we hope to break regularly).

Tier One:

• Jonathon Papelbon
• Francisco Rodriguez
• Joe Nathan
• Mariano Rivera

Truth is, I don't trust Rivera in that tier, but his numbers are just insane. Since 2003, he hasn't had an ERA above 2.00 save but one year. Of course, since that year was last, many of us "experts" had written him off. While K-Rod has ten more saves than Papelbon, the latter has 10 more strikeouts in fewer innings, while posting significantly better WHIP and K/BB numbers. In fact, I'm more confident that Papelbon will be the better bet going forward than I am in Nathan providing more value than Rivera.

Tier Two:

• Brad Lidge
• Kerry Wood
• Billy Wagner
• Joakim Soria

These are the names we recommended targeting on draft day, and we did not fail you (picking sleeper closers is probably my sixth sense). I'm a Cubs fan so it seems wrong not having Kerry Wood at the top of this list, because he will probably get more saves than the other three names. All these teams look to be buyers at the break with the exception of the Royals, who don't plan on giving up the kind of impact bat that has been keeping them in games.

Tier Three:

• Takashi Saito
• Bobby Jenks

Shortest tier probably ever. While Saito has only blown three saves, he has only been handed 16 save opportunities (you do the math). Jenks isn't a strikeout machine, but has solid peripherals and is on a pretty good team. Since its strikeouts that make a fantasy closer elite, and since you depend on saves from this position alone, these guys don't make tier two, but have fewer question marks than tier four.

Tier Four:

• Francisco Cordero
• Jason Isringhausen
• Huston Street
• Salomon Torres
• B. J. Ryan
• Kevin Gregg
• Jon Rauch
• Jose Valverde
• Mike Gonzalez

Cordero almost makes tier three, but the Reds are going to be sellers and that offense could struggle without Dunn and Griffey, even if both have been underperforming. After Isringhausen broke down (insert any adverb), he has been lights out in June on a solid team. Torres and Gonzalez will have to perform to hold their jobs, but are the better options over their injury-prone counterparts and have been solid thus far (Torres's ERA since taking over? A tad over 1.50, but his K's haven't been there). Street is on a good team that will hand him opportunities, which he will gladly blow until the A's trade him, a fate much more likely for Jon Rauch.

Tier Five:

• Brandon Morrow
• George Sherrill
• Troy Percival
• Trevor Hoffman
• Brian Wilson
• Brian Fuentes
• Todd Jones
• Brandon Lyon
• C. J. Wilson
• Damaso Marte
• Joe Borowski

Here's how I look at these guys... Poor Performance: Hoffman, Wilson, Jones, Lyon, Wilson, Borowski (with Zumaya, Pena, and Betancourt/Kobayashi ready to step in for some). Likely Traded: Sherrill, Fuentes, Marte. Injury Concerns: Percival. Morrow is the only guy not tainted on this list, but at some point the M's have to hand the job back to Putz; I think it will be later than you'd expect.

Midseason Rankings: Starting Pitcher

Well, you asked for them, and so here they are. This is a particularly challenging endeavor, I quickly realized, because you have to either trust a player's career performances, their 2007 performance (which is usually too influential in preseason rankings), or their performance thus far in 2008. That said, I expect these to be controversial, if only because Rich Harden is a living, breathing entity. Do complain, argue, or applaud any ranking you see fit, as Pete's editorial will explain the importance of.

Tier One:

• Johan Santana
• C.C. Sabathia
• Jake Peavy
• Brandon Webb
• John Lackey
• Scott Kazmir

Some Comments: I would still prefer Santana over anyone; you know he's going to get hot at some point, and while he will never go in the first round of drafts again, he's still the epitome of fantasy staff ace. Unlike the rest of these pitchers, Sabathia has already played through his yearly funk, and I expect he will continue to succeed especially if traded to the NL. Kazmir and Lackey are the only surprises, and its because of their dominance and their teams' success. While Lackey has the longer track record, Kazmir is still at the improvement stage of his career and could hold his numbers all season.

Tier Two:

• Roy Halladay
• Rich Harden
• Cole Hamels
• Carlos Zambrano
• Felix Hernandez
• Tim Lincecum
• Dan Haren
• Josh Beckett

Comments: Yes, Harden is this good, and his last couple outings have been so great because he's held back to prevent injury, and the results were as phenomenal as ever. Hamels and Zambrano get a boost because their teams are winning. Lincecum could be higher, but anyone who sees his delivery fears an injury every time he goes out to pitch.

Tier Three:

• Edinson Volquez
• Erik Bedard
• Ben Sheets
• Javier Vazquez
• Aaron Harang
• Joba Chamberlain
• Tim Hudson
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• James Shields
• Ervin Santana
• Chad Billingsley

Comments: Bedard is this low because either he stays in Seattle and barely reaches double digit wins, or he's traded away from SafeCo and his deep flyball tendencies ruins his decent ERA. Haren and Matsuzaka have second half issues, while Volquez, Duschcherer, Chamberlain, and Billingsley all have innings-pitched maximums. The rest have been good, but just not aces.

Tier Four:

• Justin Verlander
• Cliff Lee
• Matt Cain
• Roy Oswalt
• Justin Duchscherer
• Ted Lilly
• Fausto Carmona
• Dustin McGowan
• John Maine
• John Danks
• Francisco Liriano
• Johnny Cueto
• Jered Weaver
• Shaun Marcum
• Kelvim Escobar
• Chris Young
• Zack Greinke
• Pedro Martinez

Comments: I think the talent from top to bottom of this tier shows the largest gap, but I can't justify a tier difference between Pedro and Verlander, as its not quite a "marginal pitcher". A lot of upside, a lot of underperformers or overperformers. The guys returning from injury could surprise, but if they start rusty their overall second half performance will suffer. And yes, I still don't believe in Cliff Lee.

Tier Five:

• Jonathon Sanchez
• Jon Lester
• A.J. Burnett
• Jesse Litsch
• Derek Lowe
• Gavin Floyd
• Oliver Perez
• Adam Wainwright
• Joe Saunders
• Andy Pettitte
• Chris Carpenter
• Dana Eveland
• Jair Jurrjens
• Todd Wellemeyer
• Ryan Dempster
• Matt Garza
• Adam Miller

Comments: This level is pretty much just above marginal. I like most of the players more than spot starters, but in shallow leagues they might not be worth owning. As a side note, I tend to switch out pitchers in this level for solid middle relievers if possible, especially in head to head leagues where one bad start can cost you the week.

If I forgot anyone, please comment and I will update it. More rankings will come later, but this is a topic where the more dialogue we get going, the better we can gauge the true value of each of the players.

Thank you to the commenters thus far, as these rankings are constantly updated.

Rankings: Second Basemen

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Relief Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Third Base, Outfielders

Well, here we are, the last of the position rankings. I used these rankings in my drafts this year, and will continue to do so since they have been largely successful. Second base is considered a deep position this year, and I can't say I disagree. While it is top-heavy, much like shortstop and third base, it is so top heavy that at least half the players in your league will end up with someone with holes in their roto game. Because of this, I consider 2nd base to be an ideal position to assess needs and strengths in the later rounds, and will talk about those "plugs" near the end.

Tier 1: Chase Utley

Tier 2: Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton

Tier 3: Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler

Tier 4: Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla

Tier 5: Aaron Hill, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Kent, Placido Polanco, Kaz Matsui, Akinori Iwamura, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez

Now, Utley is a stud and while I won't dedicate an entire bullet to him I will state that I expect the difference between him and Phillips/Upton will be worth the round difference. If you can get Utley late, you should jump on him--anywhere after seventh pick he's your man. Upton and Phillips are interchangeable, though I give the nod to Phillips due to the hitter-friendly park (both lineups are improved). In a ten-team Yahoo! league, I'd say it's worth grabbing those Tier 3 2B if you have your ace pitcher, a cornerstone to your offense (first three picks say), and a shortstop. Your better off with Tulowitski over Roberts or Furcal over Kinsler, considering the relative depth of second base verses shortstop.

Finally, lets consider "patching" with a late round pick. These guys will contribute heavily to their category, but probably not much else...

Power: Dan Uggla (obviously not that late on this one), Ty Wigginton

Speed: Kaz Matsui, Luis Castillo

Average: Howie Kendrick (not too late with this one either), Placido Polanco

Rankings: Relief Pitchers

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Third Base, Outfielders

I am a big proponent of drafting several relief pitchers, especially closers, in a standard Yahoo! or ESPN league. If a league allows daily roster changes, rotating those upper-most 2 SP positions between a bench filled with starting pitchers and filling the RP and P spots with the best relief pitchers pads your peripheral stats. Last year my best team had a team ERA of 3.30, and I finished in the top three in both wins and strikeouts. When choosing between a bench of position players (often not far, if at all, above marginal level) and middle relief, I would recommend the latter.

That being said, the best relief pitchers are closers. Building an early lead in saves can keep in in the upper echelon for most of the season. Trading closers away to teams desperate for saves and generate a great team. So, which closers are worth keeping and which are worth drafting and trading away?

Tier 1: Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez

• Papelbon is projected by several reputable statistical analysts as ready for a season with an ERA well beneath 2.00. Throw in his K rate above one per inning, the chance for forty plus saves, and brilliant dance moves, and you have a great closer. Really though, everyone on this list is great, and if I had to choose between Papelbon at 42nd overall and K-Rod at 64th, I'd gladly take the latter (and these are the current ADP of the two).

Tier 2: Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito

Tier 3: Francisco Cordero, Jose Valverde, Bobby Jenks, Trevor Hoffman, Huston Street, Brad Lidge

Tier 4: Manny Corpas, Chad Cordero, Rafael Soriano, Joakim Soria, B.J. Ryan, Jason Isringhausen, Kevin Gregg, Matt Capps

Tier 5: Brian Wilson, Todd Jones, Eric Gagne, George Sherrill, Joe Borowski, Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Kerry Wood, Brandon Lyon, Troy Percival, C.J. Wilson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathon Broxton, Rafael Betancourt, Jeremy Accardo, Pat Neshek, Al Reyes, Pat Neshek, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes

The Cubs relief core rounds out the top 30 RP drafted in a ten-team league. Right now, Howry is the expected closer, Marmol is the best pitcher, and I think Wood will end up with the job. I'll let you try to make sense of what to do.

Papelbon carries an injury risk, and since you can grab Okajima late owners of the Red Sox should handcuff him with a great middle relief option. Other middle relief guys that I see as valuable handcuffs are Broxton, Accardo, and Zumaya (out till mid-season). Some guys who I think will start in middle-relief and earn closing jobs are Eddie Guardado and Rafael Betancourt.

Rankings: Third Base

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Outfielders

Three first basemen will go in the first round, though I would contend that only two should. A-Rod should be the first player taken, and I would not question someone taking Wright with the second pick. In a ten-team league, there is one formidable third basemen for each league, though in a twelve-team league letting your target 3B slip may cost you. A lot of people argue that the position is deep, though I feel that there are several tiers at the position and hence having a premier third basemen can be extremely valuable.

Tier 1: Alex Rodriguez

Tier 2: David Wright

Tier 3: Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins (and I like him, though something seems wrong with him here with Miguel Cabrera and him with Beltre)

Tier 4: Chone Figgins, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre

Tier 5: Alex Gordon, Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock, Evan Longoria, Josh Fields

Tier 6: Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Andy LaRoche, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, Akinori Iwamura, Ty Wigginton, Eric Chavez

Tiers don't ordinarily include one player, but the top two in these rankings must. After last year, Rodriguez is on a tier of his own, while his fantasy compatriot Pujols no longer holds such an honor. Wright may hit the same number of home runs as Miguel Cabrera. He might bat for the same average. And he'll compliment both feats with more than twenty-five steals. 

I'm not totally sold on Braun, but on the off-chance that he holds his value I'll roughly equate him to Ramirez on the on-chance that he will get injured. Figgins has second base eligibility in some leagues, and should be the third second basemen off the board if thats the case. At third though, he's costing you homeruns at a position you depend on power from. 

Lastly, Alex Gordon is my post-hype sleeper for the season. He could go 20-20 without much improvement, and I expect improvement, especially in regard to his average. The former blue-chipper's poor performance is scaring people away from rookie-phenom Longoria, when Braun's rookie of the year performance should be attracting them. Always take high-risk, high-reward players over marginal veterans. If not for fear of Red Sox nation, Lowell might be at the end of that fifth tier.

Rankings: First Base

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, Shortstops, Outfielders

To me, first basemen are the power position of a fantasy team. In every category other than steals, your one bagger better produce or you will be under a lot of pressure to draft a hell of a supporting squad. My personal feeling is that in your standard Yahoo! or ESPN league, that utility spot might as well have "second 1B" written on it. I'll go into this at the end a bit, because I think it's a valuable strategic postulate.

Tier 1: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder

• I'll say this several times as the season approaches--We are all looking to get burned for not grabbing Pujols earlier. His ADP is sixth right now, which is just about half that of Howard and Fielder, who are interchangeable as far as I'm concerned. While I think Pujols is the better guy, I am concerned by the elbow and the weak supporting cast. He'll beat the latter in average substantially, but Howard and Fielder will hit more homeruns, bat for more RBIs, and have a better shot at staying healthy.

Tier 2: (David Ortiz), Mark Teixeira

Tier 3: Derek Lee, Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau, Travis Hafner

Tier 4: Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, (Jim Thome)

Tier 5: James Loney, Joey Votto, Todd Helton, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Garko, (Frank Thomas), Conor Jackson, Kevin Youkilis

I'm sold on an improved Cubs offense with a full season of Soto and the arrival of Fukudome, I'm not sold on an improved Twins offense with Delmon Young and Mike Lamb. Lee's 16 homers after the Summer Classic earns him a nod over Berkman, Morneau, and Pronks. I like Berkman as an outfielder more than at first, since you can grab a number of late guys at first that are better than late guys in the outfield.

I'm willing to wait for the 5th Tier, though I think the fourth tier will have more trade value and thats an important factor of value. Look for big seasons out of Loney and Votto, and bounceback campaigns out of Kotchman and Overbay. Along with the Big Hurt, if he doesn't get hurt, that final crew has a lot to be confident about.

Lastly, since this post includes both 1B and DH, I'd like to stress why playing a 1st baseman in your Utility spot is advantageous. If you have four good OFs above the marginal 1st baseman, you should be able to trade one of them for more than he's worth to you. If you have two great 3B, someone in the league would kill for the lesser of the two. Overall, any position other than 1B has more trade value than real value at the Utility spot.

Rankings: Catchers

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Shortstops, Outfielders,

Thanks for the indecisiveness ladies and gents. Catchers come in tied with third basemen and first basemen, so I'll go with the backstops (mostly because it will be easy, and you guys have been taking the easy way out and not commenting. Just to incite you to change your behavior, these rankings will be particularly controversial). Most people argue that you can wait for a catcher after the first five are taken, I'm going to narrow that to four. But without further adieu...

Tier 1: Russell Martin, Victor Martinez

• This is a tough choice, but I think a clear one. Martin is five years younger, will likely steal fifteen bags for you, and won't compromise many homeruns. This, to me, was outweighed by the RBI increase you got last year from Martinez, but I don't think there will be such a gap this year. The Dodgers' offense is underhyped, and I like Martin to drive more runs in (though he might be asked to steal less with a career SB% just over 66%)

Tier 2: Brian McCann, Joe Mauer

Tier 3: Jorge Posada, Geovany Soto, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Justin Towles

Tier 4: Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, Ronny Paulino, Bengie Molina, Mike Napoli, Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki

Posada doesn't belong in a tier of his own. His previous career high batting average was .281, and despite 2007's commendable year his career average is .277. He's an old catcher, and they decline quickly, so the days of high twenty HRs are over. I like that third tier, but you have to be careful since, even in a ten team league, someone will be stuck with a tier 4 or below backstop. The biggest bargain in regard to ADP is Towles, who could bat .280 with double digit HRs and SBs.

Rankings: Shortstops

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Outfielders

Three shortstops might very well go in the first round of your drafts, and they probably should. My feeling with shortstops is that, after these three, there are enough decent ones to go around in any league not requiring a MI. This grooves with the popular sentiment that middle infield scarcity is overrated these days.

Tier 1: Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins

• Brief comments: I take Reyes over Ramirez because of the latter's offseason shoulder surgery, which is currently about as underplayed as Pujols's is overplayed.
• Rollins will go at the end of the round, but unless you are hurting for steals I wouldn't trade him for Reyes with the required marginal pitcher to warrant a lower tier. Rollins will get more runs and RBIs, though I wouldn't be surprised to see close to equal power numbers.

Tier 2:  Derek Jeter, Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitski, Carlos Guillen

Tier 3: Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, Michael Young, Edgar Renteria

Tier 4: J.J. Hardy, Khalil Greene, Julio Lugo, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Johnny Peralta, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Theriot

That's as far as they go in the first 276 picks. Tier 2 and Tier 3 are pretty close to me, but Tier 3 players simply carry a slightly higher "bust risk". Provided the similarity, I don't advocate drafting a shortstop until late unless one of the top three are there later than you think they should be. I'd rather draft someone who is going to much further from marginal level than the top shortstops with my first pick.

Rankings: Outfielders

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers

Well, if it's outfielders you want, it's outfielders you get. In a Yahoo! 10 Team league, we are talking about 48 outfielders taken, while the larger pool will have 66 outfielders taken. That's a much larger jump than we saw in pitchers, and I agree with the reasoning. With 23 roster spots, someone should be on your bench to cover for injuries, and with three outfielders starting, the safest position is to hold a fourth.

Tier 1: Matt Holliday, Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee

Tier 2: Ichiro Sukuki, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn

Tier 3: Magglio Ordonez, Chris B. Young, Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis, Shane Victorino, Gary Sheffield, Hunter Pence, Bobby Abreu, Eric Byrnes, Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, Corey Hart, Jason Bay, Hideki Matsui, Jeff Francoeur

Tier 4: Jermaine Dye, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Juan Pierre, Johnny Damon, Matt Kemp, Aaron Roward, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ken Griffey, Gary Mathews Jr., Willy Taveras

Tier 5 (marginal level): Raul Ibanez, Nate McClouth, Colby Rasmus, Kosuke Fukudome, Pat Burrell, Chris Duncan, Michael Bourn, Jay Bruce, Rocco Baldelli, CoCo Crisp, Melky Cabrera, Adam Jones, Jack Cust, Garret Anderson, J.D. Drew, Jose Guillen, Michael Cuddyer, Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, David DeJesus, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady

You can approximate Tier 1 as "very good number one outfielders", Tier 2 as "good number one outfielders", Tier 3 as "good number two outfielders", and Tier 4 as "good number three outfielders". As you can tell, there is a surplus of outfielders in the 3rd and 4th Tier, so when drafting you can wait to grab those outfielders if your team has other concerns.

Now, one thing that is worth noting is that this "marginal level" extends beyond those outfielders drafted, which literally means many people will draft a third outfielder no better than the free agency. If you find yourself in this position, you shouldn't draft that outfielder until the final round--don't fall trap to seeing that empty roster spot and worrying than you'll end up with Randy Winn.

Rankings: Starting Pitchers

In order to find our tiers, we must first figure out what a marginal pitcher is. In a standard 21-pick Yahoo! Default League, with ten players (anything less is outside the scope of this analysis), the total number of players selected is 210. The largest pool of players this site will concern itself with is 276, which is the number of players selected is a twelve team, 23 pick draft. Players after the first 210 picks will be in italics, up until the first 276.

In a ten team Yahoo! League, 54 pitchers will be kept; In a twelve team league, we are looking at twelve more for a total of 66. Players are listed within their tier by how I'd rank them, although by definition such differences aren't very important.

Tier 1: Johan Santana (14), Jake Peavy (19)

Tier 2: Brandon Webb (37), C.C. Sabathia (48), Josh Beckett (43), Cole Hamels (56), Erik Bedard (38), John Lackey (49)

Tier 3: Carlos Zambrano (58), Dan Haren (59), Justin Verlander (65), Scott Kazmir (68), Roy Halladay (94), Aaron Harang (73)

Tier 4: John Smoltz (80), Roy Oswalt (74), Felix Hernandez (85), Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chris Young (88), Ben Sheets, Fausto Carmona (100), Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, Rich Hill, Jered Weaver

Tier 5: Pedro Martinez, Brad Penny, Matt Cain, Brett Myers, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, Chad Billingsley, Chien-Ming Wang, Yovani Gallardo, A.J. Burnett, John Maine, Phillip Hughes, Jeremy Bonderman, Dustin McGowan, Dontrelle Willis, Oliver Perez, John Garland, Tim Hudson, Jeff Francis, Ted Lilly, Adam Wainwright, Rich Harden, Ian Snell

Bottom Tier (these are the marginal pitchers - In order to get to the second tier a pitcher would have to be worth two of these, and hence this tier is larger than most)...
Clay Bucholz, Micah Owings, Greg Maddux, Derek Lowe, Zack Greinke, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Blanton, Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Gil Meche, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Lester, Noah Lowry, Barry Zito, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buerhrle

So, there are the marginal pitchers that the whole tier system should be based on. The numbers in parenthesis are the average draft position, used for the top twenty guys. Before I talk about who is overrated and underrated, what is your take on the order?