Roster Magazine is Up!

Our friends at Seamless Baseball have been working hard for months on the definitive free fantasy baseball guide of 2008, and it's finally complete and ready for your viewing pleasure. Check it out here. Zach and I had the pleasure of participating in their mock draft, and you can check out our teams and read our analyses and strategies (I picked from the beginning of the first round, while Zach picked from the end). You can check out other bloggers' opinions of how to draft, some of the most detailed positional projections I've seen, and articles by some truly intelligent writers concerning all aspects of fantasy baseball. Please spend some time HERE as you prepare for your upcoming season.

Sports Blogger Draft Continued

On to the fourteenth round and beyond!

14th Round: Chad Billingsley, Dustin McGowan, Tim Hudson, B.J. Ryan, Aaron Roward, Dustin Pedroia, Ted Lilly, Khalil Greene, Jhonny Peralta, Placido Polanco Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang

• Beyond Billingsley, I think the starting pitchers here were taken almost in reverse order. Wang isn't a brilliant pitcher but he has respectable peripherals and grabs you wins, just as Penny does to a lesser extent. Lilly and Hudson enjoyed surprisingly good seasons last year, but not as good as Wang and Penny, so I don't necessarily agree with their earlier selection. McGowan is one of those sleepers gone wild, where everyone is on him even if his real value is going later than he should.

15th Round: Brian Wilson, Aaron Hill, Ian Snell, Jeremy Bonderman, Adam Wainwright, Josh Fields, Jered Weaver, Oliver Perez, Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Francis, Eric Gagne

• I was very happy to get Hill here as I waited as long as I could to grab a decent second basemen. Weaver and Bonderman could be real steals, while the closers here are all rather risky and interchangeable.

16th Round: Ken Griffey Jr., Rafael Betancourt, Dontrelle Willis, Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Garko, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Phil Hughes, Conor Jackson, Ivan Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Raul Ibanez

• Two notes: First, Conor Jackson and Ryan Garko falling ended any hope of my getting a first basemen. Secondly, the team who took Betancourt (albeit rounds too early) seemed to read my mind most of the draft, taking several players I hoped to get. He also had a great team name - SteakGrowsOnDmitri. As a side note, Dmitri Young went undrafted.

17th Round: Justin Upton, Kelvim Escobar, Ryan Theriot, Rich Harden, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Orlando Hudson, Troy Percival, Michael Cuddyer, Gil Meche, Jonathon Broxton, Jeff Kent, Todd Jones

• Escobar was my steal of the draft - I think once he was so far up the draft board everyone forgot there are months after April. Jeff Kent and Cuddyer in this round I also loved.

18th Round: Adam LaRoche, J.D. Drew, Jose Guillen, Josh Willingham, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Nate McLouth, Kevin Youkilis, Joe Blanton, Joe Borowski, George Sherrill, C.J. Wilson

• I didn't expect J.D. Drew to go here, so was a bit disappointed. Butler and McLouth were also great OF fillers and all draft types should watch for them come draft day. Sherrill is a bit underrated in my opinion, becoming a closer and coming off a great season.

19th Round: Lastings Milledge, Frank Thomas, Casey Kotchman, Jay Bruce, Heath Bell, Luke Scott, Bengie Molina, Jamie Walker, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Varitek, Ty Wigginton, Ramon Hernandez

• Got to praise Tim Dierkes from RotoAuthority for consecutive picks of McLouth and Luke Scott to fill an otherwise struggling outfield; failing to get either would have severly handicapped his team. Also, 19th round for 2B-eligible Wigginton? He deserves better.

20th Round: Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon, Shaun Marcum, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Doumit, Matt Garza, Hank Blalock, Andy Pettitte, Mark Reynolds, Jason Kubel, Ronny Paulino, Cameron Maybin

• Best Pick: Randy Johnson. Worst: Cameron Maybin. No one should be too proud nor ashamed, as it was the first and last pick of the round...

21st Round: Jason Giambi, Greg Maddux, Zack Greinke, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Moises Alou, Kurt Suzuki, Jack Cust, Hiroki Kuroda, Gary Mathews Jr., Andre Ethier, Troy Glaus

• Maddux over Greinke was hard for me, so I'll say Pete made me do it. I like Kuroda here, along with Melky. Good players that won't hurt your team.

22nd Round: Mike Cameron, Felix Pie, Bob Howry, Scott Rolen, Felipe Lopez, Rocco Baldelli, Bronson Arroyo, Freddy Sanchez, Wily Mo Pena, Jon Lester, Julio Lugo, Paul Lo Duca

• Sanchez, Mo Pena, and Lester came off my queue in a row right before I took Lugo, so I wasn't happy. Still, Lugo's post-All Star numbers are something to feel consoled about.

23rd Round: Carlos Ruiz, Chris Duncan, Barry Zito, Chuck James, Joaquin Benoit, Kerry Wood, Colby Rasmus, Scott Baker, Mark Ellis, John Buck, Kevin Slower, Josh Bard

24th Round: Richie Sexson, Pat Neshek, Chris Carpenter, Rajai Davis, Mark Teahen, Casey Blake, Bill Hall, Mike Napoli, Jeremy Accardo, Manny Parra, Hideki Okajima, Wandy Rodriguez

25th Round: Tony Pena, Jon Garland, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lyle Overbay, Austin Kearns, Chad Qualls, Luis Castillo, Tom Gordon, Shawn Hill, Randy Wolf, Yunel Escobar, Jeremy Guthrie

26th Round: Garret Anderson, Dioner Navarro, Coco Crisp, Matt Guerrier, Dave Bush, Scot Shields, Rick Ankiel, Jayson Nix, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, Akinori Iwamura, Jon Rauch

Sports Blogger League: My Team

A lot of my fellow writers that participated in this league have posted their teams, and I encourage you to check their posts out. Since they have recommended the same action, I figured I'd comply and go ahead and post my fantastic roster...

C - Geovany Soto (10)

C - Ronny Paulino (20)

1B - Alex Gordon (11)

2B - Aaron Hill (15)

SS - Jose Reyes (1)

3B - Ryan Zimmerman (7)

CI - Evan Longoria (16)

MI - Julio Lugo (22)/ Akinori Iwamura (26)

OF - Vladimir Guerrero (2)

OF - Lance Berkman (3)

OF - Gary Sheffield (5)

OF - Willy Taveras (12)

OF - Chris Duncan (23)

Utility - Frank Thomas (19)

P - Josh Beckett (4), Daisuke Matsuzaka (9), Pedro Martinez (13), Brad Penny (14), Kelvim Escobar (17), Greg Maddux (21), John Garland (25)

Francisco Rodriguez (6), Mariano Rivera (8), George Sherrill (18), Hideki Okajima (24)

• Some analysis: I think the real value of preparing is to get value with late round picks. Of my picks after Longoria, I felt that I got great value. Kelvim Escobar, despite missing April, could be a real steal in the 17th round. My only change would have been drafting my fifth outfielder before Paulino, as he isn't that much better than the marginal catchers.
• I have an ongoing dialogue in my head of what I think about Gordon at first. Pete suggested I put Berkman at 1st and grab a FA outfielder. Is Longoria, who would be pushed out of the roster, going to be better than the best FA outfielder, who I'd consider as Xavier Nady. I'll let you decide, but I think Gordon is staying put for now.

Finally, I'd like to hear some opinions about this roster. How does it compare to the rosters over at Fantasy Hurler, RotoAuthory, Razzball, FakeTeams, and Seamless Baseball

P.S. - To the authors of other sites that participated, please comment if I missed your draft analysis and roster. I tried to limit the links to those authors who posted their lineups for comparison.

Sports Bloggers Draft Continued

After the amount of depth in my previous post, and considering this is a 26-round affair, I'd like to begin to move a little faster with a little more brevity. So without further adieu, Rounds 6-13.

6th Round: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Rafael Furcal, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Hunter Pence, Aaron Harang, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Kazmir

• Kazmir at the end of the sixth was probably the best pick, giving the owner a powerful one-two punch of Peavy and Kazmir. I was surprised that Nathan and Rodriguez made it most of the way through the round-this is important to note for those worrying whether they have to jump on a closer as soon as the first of the big four falls off the board. I think Adrian Gonzalez went a little early here, only because he likely would have lasted another round (or so it seemed during the draft). 

7th Round: Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez, Torii Hunter, Jorge Posada, Roy Oswalt, Michael Young, Takashi Saito, Brad Hawpe, Shane Victorino, Delmon Young, Miguel Tejada

• Drafts are won in the middle rounds because high-risk, high-reward players fall now. Zimmerman, King Felix, Delmon Young, and Miguel Tejada all define this characteristic. I'm not a huge fan of Posada this early (only one round after McCann) since a lot of people wait on catchers until that third tier is broken into, and no one likes to be the one to do it.

8th Round: John Smoltz, Carlos Zambrano, J.J. Hardy, Adrian Beltre, Rich Hill, Nick Swisher, Matt Kemp, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Valverde, Paul Konerko, Mariano Rivera, Rickie Weeks

• I was shocked that Swisher and Konerko went in this round, and would never really get a legitimate first baseman because of it. I agree that both were due though. Hardy seems like the most questionable pick of this bunch, while I really like Zambrano in the 8th round.

9th Round: Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Vernon Wells, Howie Kendrick, Juan Pierre, Javier Vazquez, Andruw Jones, James Shields, Roy Halladay, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jim Thome, Jason Bay

• Last years rejects were featured in round nine, with freefallers Andruw Jones and Jason Bay sliding at least six rounds from their 2007 ADP. Halladay hurts unless your league counts complete games, since he can no longer provide K's and a ton of wins while his peripherals showed signs of deteriorating. I think Jones and Bay were the best picks of this round, while Pierre and Ellsbury were questionable.

10th Round: Hideki Matsui, Billy Wagner, Pat Burrell, Matt Cain, Edgar Renteria, Brett Myers, Todd Helton, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Liriano, Jermaine Dye, Geovany Soto, James Loney

• Not much to say here. Wagner was the best pick, while Dye has seen his best days pass. I think the interesting thing about Liriano is that, while he could be a bust, he could also be the best pick in the draft. While it may hurt to lose your tenth round pick, it might hurt more to play against the team that drafted Liriano when you were too worried. And right now, it looks like Liriano will at worst be a tenth-round pitcher.

11th Round: Yovani Gallardo, Alex Gordon, Jeremy Hermida, J.R. Towles, A.J. Burnett, Bobby Jenks, Fausto Carmona, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, Dan Uggla

• This was a round of reaches. Gordon, Hermida, Hamilton, Towles, Soriano, and Encarnacion were all taken before being on the big board of all players, and I like all of the picks. At some point in the draft you have to take risks. No real loser here, though the Gallardo taker is going to have to deal with a shortened April and possibly a shortened season if the Brewers shut the young hurler down while the Cubs take the division by storm.

12th Round: Trevor Hoffman, Huston Street, Joakim Soria, Kosuke Fukudome, John Maine, Brad Lidge, Matt Capps, Johnny Damon, Ben Sheets, Kenji Johjima, Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn

• I count five closers in seven picks, which was bizarre. For those of you who haven't heard yet, Lidge is undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery again. Also, I'm shying away from Trevor Hoffman since at some point batters will realize they are facing a change-up and another change-up. Still, Fukudome was the strangest pick since he won't offer much in a league not including OBP and I have to commend the taker of Johjima to wait around after I took Soto what appears to be a round too soon.

13th Round: Adam Jones, Pedro Martinez, Manny Corpas, Mike Lowell, Chad Cordero, Kelly Johnson, Jason Isringhausen, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Delgado, Kazuo Matsui, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz

• Adam Jones and Michael Bourn at the end of 12 was a strange decision in my opinion, since both would have been around later. Still, this was a round of taking crushes, as Johnson, Matsui, and Votto were all reached for. I think that, when tiers are considered, these picks weren't the best when they were taken. Pedro was crush pick, though I needed another pitcher and most of the legitimate guys were gone.

So there they are. Please post comments, and come back next time to see how long experts let Kelvim Escobar fall even when they have DH spots and he's likely to miss only a month.

• My team so far: Jose Reyes, Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Josh Beckett, Gary Sheffield, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman, Mariano Rivera, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Geovany Soto, Alex Gordon, Willy Taveras, Pedro Martinez

Expert (Not Mock) Draft: Sports Bloggers

Hey everyone, thanks again for helping me in the other thread, the draft went extremely well and I'm happy with my team. Check out "The Fifth Pick" for a run-down of my picks, but for now I wanted to do a run-through of the actual league. It was a 26-round affair, so I'll look at five rounds at a time with commentary. For the record, I drafted from the second pick.

1st Round: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Johan Santana, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols

• I don't know what's more surprising, Ortiz in the first round or Pujols for all intensive purposes in the second. The first four picks I agree with, and Santana came up in our discussion of the fifth pick. I expect Utley to fall in a lot of drafts since his numbers aren't as gaudy as his roundmates, though compared to his position he's a steal at ninth. Howard belongs in the first round.

2nd Round: Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun, Carlos Lee, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero, B.J. Upton

• Soriano made up for the Ortiz reach in the first round, and I think is vastly underrated, especially by experts. While I like Phillips, I don't like him that early and ahead of guys like Lee, Beltran, and Braun. Interestingly, Fielder was taken by the same team that took Howard. I like this in such a deep league, but in your standard 10-team Yahoo! league I think other category needs should be addressed instead. Carlos Lee is underrated by the general public but was given his due in this draft with a mid-second round pick. 

3rd Round: Jake Peavy, Lance Berkman, Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson, Adam Dunn, Russell Martin, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Victor Martinez, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard

• Peavy fell much further in this real league than in the mock draft with the same writers, and I agree. While he's likely to put up great numbers, he isn't that much more likely than guys like Bedard and Webb. Russell Martin and Victor Martinez are going to go in the third round, and I just can't do it--a team with one outfielder and one corner infielder has too many needs heading into the middle rounds. I like Morneau less than D. Lee and dislike the pick there, while Ramirez is a nice pick at the end of the third round. Lastly, Dunn and Ordonez simply don't constitute a pick in this round.

4th Round: Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Travis Hafner, Nick Markakis, C.C. Sabathia, Bobby Abreu, Derrek Lee, Garrett Atkins, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Josh Beckett, Troy Tulowitski

• Lee, Atkins, and Ramirez are all undervalued this year, and those teams got great value in the fourth round. C.C. Sabathia is underrated considering it being a walk year and his Cy Young Award; I consider taking him fourth after Johan, Peavy, and Webb. I don't think Jeter is worth much, but at the end of the fourth round we held off as long as possible. I consider Beckett overrated, but slightly better than Cole Hamels, the next best pitcher available.

5th Round: Corey Hart, Gary Sheffield, John Lackey, Robinson Cano, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Eric Byrnes, Chris B. Young, J.J. Putz, Carlos Guillen, Jonathon Papelbon

• The closer run began in the fifth round, which I find reasonable compared to Mock Draft Central trials. Sheffield is worth much more with OF eligibility, and for those wondering, Yahoo! does provide the cornerstone of the Tigers' offense with the blessing. Guillen will be Jeter of the past with a little more power and a little less speed, and is a good SS to count on. The starting pitchers fell interestingly, as I like Hamels and Verlander a bit more than Lackey and Haren as we get closer to the season.

So concludes the first five rounds. Any thoughts would be appreciated, and any questions I will gladly answer. There is a lot of data here, but I tried to keep my analysis brief.

The Fifth Pick

I'd like to start by thanking all my readers out there. This blog has only been up for a little over two weeks now, and the feedback has all been great. I've run into many of you on Mock Draft Central, and as a blogger who randomly meets a fan of his site such occasions are rewarding. Another benefit of the blog has been an invitation to an "Expert League" with several other bloggers, and the draft is this Sunday.

What I'd like to ask of you is some arguments for who I should take with the fifth overall pick in the draft. The league is a little different than the format we usually suggest here (C C 1B 2B SS 3B MI CI OF OF OF OF OF Util, 9 Pitchers) though I think for the first round such change is negligible. 

Tim Dierkes, author of RotoAuthority, recently posted the same question about the fourth pick over at his site, prefacing the debate with the likelihood of taking whoever is left out of Wright, Ramirez, or Reyes. I'm not big on taking Rollins or Holliday or Pujols... so I guess I'll be discontent. If you were in this worst pick, who would you take?